Another home run CC, brilliant. At the time I feel most concerned with either fear or fomo, your newsletter is my true north, helps to keep me centered and grounded, thank you again brother ;-)
I like the theoretical idea of the left shifting but indeed, it needs confirmation. November 2021 happened because of FTX which was “unforeseen”(?). Curious and excited to see if this theory will be confirmed. Amazing job as always. 👏🏻👏🏻
I’m on the mailing list for Pantera Capital. Got this (excerpt but chart’s didn’t copy) email this morning. If you haven’t already seen it this might interest you.
4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLES
Bitcoin’s supply and coin distribution ruleset is based purely on mathematics – predictable and transparent by design.
“Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It’ll be distributed to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half every four years. First four years: 10,500,000 coins. Next four years: 5,250,000 coins. Next four years: 2,625,000 coins. Next four years: 1,312,500 coins. Etc. . . .”
— Satoshi Nakamoto, The Cryptography Mailing List, January 8, 2009
This has created a pronounced four-year cyclicality in the price of bitcoin.
The table below shows these cycles. The rhythm is amazingly steady. The rallies are within 23 days of the 1,076-day average bull market (2.95 years). Same tightness on the downside – bear markets end within 24 days of the 382-day average (1.05 years).
**IF** past performance was a predictor of the future, the rally would last until November 1, 2025.
4-Year Bitcoin Cycles Table
The symmetry of these 4-year blocks is simply amazing.
Price down, Risk down- sounds like a good tattoo!
I think now with the alternate theory we are fully prepared for the next run. Now the picture is complete in my eyes. How do you feel about it?
Good tattoo haha
I feel over prepared, which is exactly where I wanted to be!
Can’t stop here! Gonna keep stacking the info in our favor.
This also now lining up with the 3.5 year liquidity cycle which everyone starting to talk about (from Raoul Pal to TechDev)
Makes for a very interesting extra data point!
I think next year will be very important to watch to see which Theory takes precedence.
Another home run CC, brilliant. At the time I feel most concerned with either fear or fomo, your newsletter is my true north, helps to keep me centered and grounded, thank you again brother ;-)
That's what I'm here for Stephen!
The right mindset can be tough sometimes, for some people these are just the words they need to hear.
Thanks again for the always kind words!
I like the theoretical idea of the left shifting but indeed, it needs confirmation. November 2021 happened because of FTX which was “unforeseen”(?). Curious and excited to see if this theory will be confirmed. Amazing job as always. 👏🏻👏🏻
Thank you Luca!
Yes need to wait for price to confirm the theories but good to have this idea in mind so we can be prepared!
Thanks; I am a new member and really love your content.
I am not able to direct message you on X to get the links for the direct telegram channel. Let me know how you want me to proceed.
Hey there!
Send me a message on telegram with the email you subscribed with and I’ll send you the link.
My username is: @CRYPTOCON_PREMIUM
Thanks! I bought 3 Bitcoins some weeks ago. If price maybe doubles or triples in the next 2 years I think it’s still a good deal.
It will be interesting next year if the data maybe changes and if it will be better to sell when there is a first High, and rebuy if it drops
Sounds good my friend!
I think you’ll be happy with your decision in the end 🤝
I’m on the mailing list for Pantera Capital. Got this (excerpt but chart’s didn’t copy) email this morning. If you haven’t already seen it this might interest you.
4-YEAR BITCOIN CYCLES
Bitcoin’s supply and coin distribution ruleset is based purely on mathematics – predictable and transparent by design.
“Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It’ll be distributed to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half every four years. First four years: 10,500,000 coins. Next four years: 5,250,000 coins. Next four years: 2,625,000 coins. Next four years: 1,312,500 coins. Etc. . . .”
— Satoshi Nakamoto, The Cryptography Mailing List, January 8, 2009
This has created a pronounced four-year cyclicality in the price of bitcoin.
The table below shows these cycles. The rhythm is amazingly steady. The rallies are within 23 days of the 1,076-day average bull market (2.95 years). Same tightness on the downside – bear markets end within 24 days of the 382-day average (1.05 years).
**IF** past performance was a predictor of the future, the rally would last until November 1, 2025.
4-Year Bitcoin Cycles Table
The symmetry of these 4-year blocks is simply amazing.
4-Year Bitcoin Cycles Chart