The Cycle Labs
Welcome everyone to The Cycle Labs!
I have been intensely researching cycles for Bitcoin for quite some time and have come to some pretty interesting findings.
On this page, I’ll be including my most advanced information yet, with my complete understanding of the cycles to date.
As my cycle understanding evolves, I will update this page with new information.
We will start with the Halving Cycles Theory and a couple of my price models. The full and much more detailed information will be reserved for premium.
Let’s jump in.
Halving Cycles Theory
The Halving Cycles Theory says that Bitcoin is not centered around all the individual halving, or cycle bottoms or tops. Rather, Bitcoin is centered around the date of the first halving, November 28th, 2012.
From this date we can tell what goes on in a given year, and when Bitcoin will top and bottom. I have marked each of these dates with horizontal lines on the chart.
The Halving Cycles Theory goes even deeper than that, with a second date, the second halving: July 9th, 2016.
Around this day, Bitcoin creates a first early top and a second early top inside of specific years.
According to my earlier Theory, the November 28th Cycles Theory, each cycle top and bottom comes within +/- 21 days of November 28th. But with the latest model, the first ever bottom creates a small outlier, with a bottom in October 2010. This increases the error rate to +/- 23 days.
The first and second early tops come within +/- 21 days of July 9th.
Let’s go over all the different specifics of the Theory:
Cycle Bottoms (Green Dot) = +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, beginning of green year.
Cycle Tops (Red Dot) = +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, end of red year.
First Early Top (Yellow Dot) = +/- 21 days from July 9th in green year.
Second Early Top (Purple Dot) = +/- 21 days from July 9th in blue year.
1 Green Year (Green Horizontal Line, Accumulation) = This year is accumulation. It begins with the Bitcoin bottom +/- 21 days from Nov 28th. This is the year of the best cycle buying prices. It is also the year that Bitcoin advances towards the median price (half the previous ATH). Bitcoin will form its first early top in this year. +/- 21 days from July 9th. (Gray horizontal line in green year, yellow dot). From there price sees a cool down.
2 Blue Year (Blue Horizontal line, Preparation) = This year Bitcoin establishes time at its new fair value (median price). It then makes its advance to the second early top, which comes +/- 21 days from July 9th. (grey horizontal line inside blue year, purple dot.) At the end of the year price moves towards but does not reach new ATHs. This is when the real bull market begins.
3 Red Year (Red Horizontal Line, New ATHS) = Red Year is the final hurrah for crypto. This contains the last cycle parabola, and where Bitcoin finds its cycle top. This is end of red year +/- 21 days from Nov 28th.
4 Orange Year (Orange Horizontal Line, Bear Market) = After setting its cycle top, Bitcoin must now find a new point of undervaluation. Price undergoes a downtrend of 1 year, where it will then bottom +/- 21 days from Nov 28th, to restart the cycle.
Trend Pattern Price Model
The Trend Pattern Price Model uses angle measurements on a set scale to predict future angle measurements.
In TradingView, angles of trends change depending on your level of zoom on the chart, so I strived to find a ratio where the numbers were clearer. This is the product of that.
Even when the zoom is changed, the angle relationship is mostly kept, which steers us away from confirmation bias.
All angles here are shown on the same scale, which increases the accuracy.
The lines here are drawn from various cycle tops and bottoms. Here are where the trends are drawn from:
Peak to peak
Peak to 2 peaks later
Peak to 3 peaks later
Bottom to Peaks
Bottom to 2 peaks later
Bottom to 3 peaks later
When we do this, it allows us to see the relationship between different angles to find the next cycle top price as we draw the line.
Since we have a time frame based on my Halving Cycles Theory, we can draw the projected trends straight to that date, which here is Nov 28th, 2025.
For example, the peak-to-peak angles as of writing have been as follows:
39, 21 10. Therefore we could guess the next would be 5. Assuming price runs into that trend late 2025 gives us a price of about 130k. We then do the same measurements and pattern findings for the others, which add to the model’s accuracy.
The model predicts a top price of about 130k by Nov 2025 and 170k by Nov 2029.
Once this cycle is completed, we will have more data points to make the model even more accurate.
These two models sum up my thoughts on time and price, but we can go much deeper.