Hello Everyone!
In this week’s Friday Video Update, I wanted to first talk about the short-term price action we have seen with new ATHs! Exciting times to be in crypto.
I’ll be talking about my post for the day on X about Early Red Years with MVRV-Z and my all-new thoughts on cycle timing with the Halving Cycles Theory.
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Quick Summary
Without a doubt, Bitcoin has now reached new ATHs at $70,000, this is the start of great things to come
The MVRV-Z score confirms were are at Red Year levels on data, this is the year when price enters a parabola into the cycle top, and comprises the most exciting price action of the cycle
For previous crosses of the 2.56 MVRV-Z value line, it has been between 10 months and 1 year to see the cycle top after the event
I previously used the MVRV-Z to gauge a mid-top, which price has now accelerated through
It seems likely now that the mid-top was in at 49k, with only a brief 20% correction. This defies the norm of much larger corrections and sideways periods that usually follow mid-tops, but this was probably to accommodate accelerated cycle timing
Previous breaks into new ATHs have occurred around this time in Red Year during 2 previous cycles in February
I now think that our Green Accumulation Year and Blue Preparation Year were condensed into one hybrid year, where the criteria for both were met
This implies we are likely to see a cycle top by the end of this year, assuming price action continues on its current trajectory
There is also the possibility of a double top this cycle, looking closely, I think a double top has appeared every cycle. This even applies to 2017 where June 2017 could have been interpreted as a top on data
Because I think the timing of cycles alternates, we might expect this cycle to also have some sort of first top in June, with the final top in December 2024
If we are to see a double top, it may be very difficult to ensure we time both of them, especially if the first shows up on most data
My new thoughts on cycle timing are in response to adapting to the price action we have been given, and not the price action I think should be there
Early Bird Gets the Worm