Hello Everyone!
In today’s Friday Video Update, I’ll be covering two of my posts from X on Google crypto searches and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.
Both of these things seem to show us that while we’ve seen an overall uptick in interest and data, the cycle top isn’t here yet.
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Quick Summary
Corrections this cycle have typically been around the 20% mark. Previous cycles have seen 30% corrections or more
This can be attributed to lowered volatility each cycle, as well as our accelerated price action
After moving to 60k, we have just reached the 20% correction threshold, strictly by percentage this could be a turnaround point
Price has still yet to visit the healthy 20 Week EMA support, if it continues not to do this it will be parabolic which calls for a long-lasting top to come in just months from now
The 20 Week EMA is now priced at 55.7k
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio shows us how many investors are selling at a profit or loss
This metric has hit levels of profit taking only seen at cycle top precursors. The good news is that this does not represent true cycle tops
RPR has corrected substantially, as we would normally see after reaching values over 23
If we lower the profit bar, we can include an instance from December 2016 that would have crossed the line. This would show that after crossing a true top is usually seen within about 8 months to a year
Google search data for the term crypto shows how interested the public is in all crypto, which can be a great gauge of how overheated we are
While we have seen some uptick in March, we don’t seem to be to any levels of concern and I think there is a lot of ground to be covered there
We also see that metrics like the Altcoin season index have failed to reach cycle top levels (90+), and on the yearly time frame it hasn’t even come close
Data shows signs of overheating but not an ultimate top, public interest and altcoin strength metrics also seem to confirm this
Horseshoes and Hand Grenades