The Phases of Altseason
Altcoin Data Newsletter Premium
Hello Everyone!
Happy Holidays and happy new Bitcoin ATHs!
But… what about Altcoins?
Some major Alts like DOGE and XRP have had explosive rises while others look to mostly collect dust. Just about every Altcoin has risen after new BTC ATHs, but not all of them have done it in the same way.
Some Altcoin holders are growing impatient, and understandably so because it is likely they have subjected themselves to massive risk.
For all of you here reading this newsletter, you know we have a different mindset. Long term. And the irony of calling ourselves long-term holders is that this would typically only mean 3 years!
I have a lot to talk about in this newsletter, and a big part of it will be answering “Why isn’t my Altcoin doing anything?!?”
Altseason has arrived, as I discussed in the last newsletter “Altseason is Here”. Altcoin dominance has exploded but has since cooled down.
I want to take an excerpt from that newsletter to explain what’s going on:
As I’ve suspected would be the case around this time, Altseason is finally here. There has been an obvious and dramatic decline in Bitcoin dominance which mirrors what we’ve seen during previous early Altseasons.
So far things might look a bit strange… looking at the charts you might think, “Are DOGE, other meme coins, and XRP the only things that are going to take off this cycle?”
“Utility” coins (I say utility in quotes because the idea of a coin with utility is honestly bogus) are lagging far behind, many of which haven’t even made new yearly highs let alone All Time Highs.
ETH, SOL, their constituents, and many other coins are some examples of this. Unsurprisingly, people across the board are quick to dunk on them, suggesting that since other coins are taking off while they carry a lackluster performance, they will never do well.
This leads me to the important question of… “Where are we?”
We know where we are in the cycle using a multitude of data, but Altseason doesn’t seem so straightforward.
I’ve been heavily researching what this drop in Bitcoin Dominance means for the cycle and how much we have left to go for Alts.
I said in the last newsletter that we have a clear place where Altseason typically begins, and that’s during the correction from the first local high after new Bitcoin ATHs:
This chart compares Bitcoin Dominance V2 to Altcoins.
The blue circles on the chart represent our relative points in previous cycles. Even with the large decline we’ve seen in BTC.D V2 so far, it does not nearly compare to the price action to come for Alts.
Historically, Altcoin price action doesn’t really pick up until new ATHs. Bitcoin has already made new ATHs but the Altcoin Marketcap has not. This is according to OTHERS which is the total Altcoin market cap excluding the top 10.
With some patience, you’ll be able to see that what has transpired so far is only the beginning. I’ll be introducing a new observation on the phases of Altseason to show where we are.
This newsletter will also include important information about the First Cycle Top for Bitcoin and Altcoins.
In a time that has never been more confusing, this newsletter should offer some clarity.
Let’s jump into today’s newsletter!
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