Hello Everyone!
In today’s video update, I’ll be covering the charts from several of my posts on X including the Golden Ratio Multiplier, the Monthly RSI, and the Monthly RVGI.
Our current move has important implications for the timing of our cycle top.
Enjoy!
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Quick Summary
Bitcoin is now deciding whether or not it is parabolic. We can see if this is the case by using the 20-week EMA. A Fully healthy support retest would bring us to about 50k
What I think is more likely though, is that price turns around a bit sooner and does not retest the moving average. This means our correction could be completed at any moment
Our correction so far has been around 17%, with all corrections this cycle being around 20%. This doesn’t guarantee that our correction is complete here but is an interesting observation
Our price action is still on track to be accelerated, with a top later around December 2024
If price is parabolic, it amplifies the chances that we see a double top because parabolas only last a matter of months. This would suggest a first top sometime in the middle of this year, and the final top end of the year
The Golden Ratio Multiplier is the most interesting metric to me currently because it is the first and only to have called for a cycle top
I do not think a cycle top is in here because no other data agrees. I believe this will prove to be a temporary resting place, possibly in route to a first top
On top of level 5 being the cycle top band, it has also been the mid-top band. Mid-top data was not very consistent this cycle and I believe it was made at 49k with a 20% correction due to accelerated price action
The Monthly RSI shows we have plenty of the cycle left to go with neither of the 2 tops that are scheduled to come being in sight
The first tops have usually come above a 90 value and have diminished over time
The Monthly RVGI has reached a point where a cycle top has always been about 10 months away. Most data seems to say something similar to this
Some other possibilities include that this is some sort of exuberant mid-top, and price corrects with a long sideways period. This would bring normal cycle timing with a top in late 2025 back into light
My preference though is that the cycle is still accelerated, but how long price takes to return above ATHs will give us important insight to that conclusion
