Eyes on The Prize
Bitcoin Data Newsletter Premium
Hello Everyone!
After a heated week of price action, Bitcoin is taking a little breather which I think is well deserved after a run from 96k to 105k.
The market has been revived. Altcoin dominance is on the rise, prices for everything are taking off, and people are feeling hopeful again.
I wanted to review a couple of highlights from my stances during the lows. First on Altcoins, from: “Altcoins, The Great Reset”
“Now is the time to buy Ethereum and Altcoins. I am still not suggesting buys for Bitcoin which has held up incredibly well.
I have very strict requirements for general buy recommendations and right now checks every box.
Alt strength is completely tanked, sentiment is gutted, and data couldn’t look better for future potential.”
This was my same message in June-September 2024 and June-October 2023.
As for Bitcoin, I laid out a potential path in March which I have mentioned many times over the past couple of months:
“Both paths have the First Cycle Top ending in May/June around 160k. I get the price target from our Fibonacci Extension chart that I have used frequently.
From my current view, the blue path seems more likely.”
While I shuffled around the altseason start box a bit later, and removed the green path and added a new purple path, the blue path has remained completely unchanged since March 3rd:
Price is following the blue path very nicely!
Over and over again during the lows, I have been talking about mass psychology. Crypto and macro common goers and top influencers alike were all screaming at the top of their lungs that a recession was coming. Here was my statement from “Steadfast”:
“If we apply some common sense, doesn’t it seem much more rational to think that the cycle would just continue on as normal after it has already done so all the way up to now?
Wouldn’t it be more rational to say that this is likely a temporary pause in route to higher prices?
Wouldn’t it be more rational to say that Altseason is probably still coming when Altcoin strength looks the same as in previous cycles but is just taking a little longer than usual? And from this point, Altcoins that are at historic low ranges would recover?
Maybe I’m the one that’s crazy here, you’ll have to tell me!
People are incredibly desperate to fight what seems obvious (4-year cycle) that they will talk themselves into an extraordinary scenario that makes no sense.
Once again, I am going against the grain to say that I do not believe a bear market is imminent and Altseason is still coming. I have been fighting popular psychology since the last cycle both during the COVID crash and at the cycle top in 2021, and I’m not going to stop now.
People who are betting on an impending bear market and a recession are taking a bet against crypto in general. If this is the starting place for all of the downside to come, crypto is done for. I am betting against that.”
Data has been the guide every step of the way, telling us what to expect. The entire bull market is still left to go.
It’s once again time to focus on the First Cycle Top, and even the final. In this newsletter, we’ll be going over where we are, and what I’m watching to prepare.
Let’s jump into today’s newsletter!
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