Hello Everyone!
In today’s video, I’ll be discussing my post from X on pre-halving rallies.
Do they occur?
I’ll be discussing each halving date to show you the price action we’ve seen surrounding each one!
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Quick Summary
It is a popular thought that a rally occurs going into the halving each cycle
Halvings occur approximately every 4 years, but not every 4 years exactly. This event reduces the reward miners receive for every 210,000th block mined.
Our next halving is set to take place April 17th, 2024.
The Halving Cycles Theory says that Bitcoin is not centered around each individual halving, but only the first: November 28th, 2024. From that date we can tell when Bitcoin will top and bottom within a +/- 21 day error rate and what happens in each given year
There seems to be no set price action that occurs during a halving, and whatever happens up to that point is largely coincidental
The price action leading up to May 11th, 2020 was bullish, but this was a black swan recovery. Price also declined in the days leading up to the halving
For the July 9th, 2016 Halving, there was a powerful rally that came about 1 month before which lined up with the second early top which comes +/- 21 days from July 9th in Blue Year. But most of what was seen before the halving was decline and sideways price action
Only a small relative increase took place before and during November 28th, 2012 halving
Although it seems like it can be argued a rally occurs before every halving, the reality is there is no structure to this taking place
With this in mind, you could place the halving at almost any date mid-cycle and say that a rally took place before it
The cycles call for sideways price action, but there is no confirmed price action that typically comes from the true halving date
