Hello Everyone!
Even during the bull market, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Drawdowns are a necessary part of expansion.
The sentiment has quickly shifted bearish, with some people predicting Trump inauguration black swans, or just fears that the cycle is over.
What do I think? Well… I for one am happy this is what we’re hearing. If the cycle top were truly in, I would bet most wouldn’t bat an eye during an 18% drop. In fact, I remember that just after I decided to sell my BTC and ETH in April 2021, prices dropped 50% and people called it a buying opportunity:
Not to mention black swans can’t be predicted. That would be completely contradictory to what they are (unexpected or unforeseen cataclysmic events).
In the last Bitcoin newsletter, “2025, The Most Important Year”, I laid out my expectations going forward and also levels to watch in the event of further decline. Here is my projection from the newsletter:
And here is the projection now:
So far the blue path has been followed pretty closely. I have since updated the green path end timeline to include March as a possible month for the high but everything else remains unchanged.
I’ll be sure to give an update on this outline which will tell you whether or not the aggressive push to 130k in February is still possible.
I also talked about correction potential using the Magic Bands:
Most levels lined up around 86k in the event of further decline with a slightly more extreme value at 82k. I’ll also be sure to update you on my thoughts on correction potential.
All of this is just a bump in the road for the best year of price action. There’s a lot to talk about.
Let’s jump into today’s newsletter!
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