Hello Everyone!
In this week’s Friday Video Update, I’ll be talking about my X post on Bitcoin Monthly Seasonality.
As March comes to a close it looks to have performed very well for one of the worst months of the year, up 15%.
I’ll also be covering how our cycle still remains on track for my projected timing of a top later this year.
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Quick Summary
There hasn’t been much meaningful price action recently other than a slight recovery from the 17.5% correction from the ATHs
Our correction percentages so far this cycle have been pretty shallow, at 20% or less. Previous cycles have all seen 30% or more which is more likely to be due to our accelerated price action more so than lowered volatility
There are lots of predictions for the short-term direction for price, but it seems better to bet with the trend which is up
We have not yet made a full correction to healthy supports like the 20 week EMA now priced around 52k. It seems unlikely that this will happen furthering our chances of entering a parabola
Parabolas are short-lived, and if one is to start soon it increases the chances we see a double top
How do we know there will be a second top if there is a first? We don’t, this is based on an educated guess on the importance of November 28th, as well as Altcoin strength which gives us clues to where we are in a cycle
Our price action continues to mimic 2017, as we slightly surpass the ATHs and then reject. The time frame is extremely similar to then as would make sense since this cycle compares most to cycle 2 (2015 - 2018)
Our cycle remains on track for a top later this year. Although there are infinite possibilities as price deviates from our 4-year price action, I have narrowed it down to this using data and inference
I go over our monthly returns from each year, which show March as a typically poor-performing month. We have managed to break through this at a 15% return
April - July are usually good performing months, putting in more green than they do red. Most red months are seen in bear market years
Overall, price looks great for continuation but I am prepared for whatever comes short-term to make inferences about the longer term
