A New Year's Bitcoin Party
A New Year's Bitcoin Party
Bitcoin Data Newsletter
Hello Everyone!
Welcome back to the Bitcoin Data Newsletter!
Last newsletter, we talked about a new Theory I developed called the Alternate Theory.
This Theory talks about the possibility of cycles moving to the left by 6 months, giving us a cycle top around May 2025.
We concluded that this needed to be confirmed first with price action which hasn’t been the case so far.
I also talked about the most likely case for the short-term as well being a move slightly lower to a range between 33.2k and 34.5k and then a move higher.
We used a Fibonacci extension that has been very accurate so far:
Here is what that same projection looks like now:
Price stopped just above the support area at around 34.7k and has continued to follow the red path from there.
We’ve even seen some support being built on top of the purple 3.618 extension level! Looking promising.
As you may have seen on X, today is a special day for Bitcoin. November 28th, 2012 is the day of the first halving which all cycles are centered around.
Today marks the start of a new phase in the cycle: Blue Year, and price might throw a party for it (higher prices inbound).
We’ll talk all about it in today’s newsletter!
I’ll also be discussing an important element of investor psychology, focusing on data. This one tip will make your journey in crypto exponentially easier, and less stressful.
This Newsletter Will Cover….
Short-Term Thoughts - Shorts are Piling Up Big!
Market Comments - The Power of Bitcoin Cycles
Long-Term Analysis - A New Year’s Bitcoin Party
Investor Psychology - Always Focus on Long-Term Data
Short-Term Thoughts
Shorts are Piling Up Big!
Liquidation heatmaps are a popular way to decipher short-term Bitcoin price action.
Areas of dense yellow represent areas where it is predicted many traders will be liquidated. Price is incentivized to move to these levels because money flows easily there.
It is also thought that market makers use these pockets to execute favorable trades for themselves.
On the weekly time frame, a dense area of predicted liquidations has built up at 38.5k.
This tells us that many traders are short from that level.
Because it is much closer than 36.6k, it seems likely that 38.5k will get tested in the short term. After which we may see another temporary correction as we grind against the 38k resistance.
The liquidty goes higher than just the concentrated area though, and fully stops at about 39.3k.
Ultimately, I am still targeting up to 48k for the upcoming months. This is an important level according to Fibonacci measurements, and the Magic Bands.
The Primary Level 2 on the Magic bands is priced just above that point and after breaking through Level 1 at 32k, it becomes the next overall target.
I talked more about that here in “Blue Year is Here”
Market Comments
The Power of Bitcoin Cycles
As I have observed Bitcoin throughout the years, I have noticed that nothing has been more powerful than cycles as it relates to price action.
The natural ebb and flow powers through any resistances maintains critical supports, and continues to stay right on track.
There are so many different ideas out there in the crypto space about how Bitcoin works, but when you view cycles correctly centered around the date of November 28th, the picture couldn’t become clearer.
For years, price has created slight differences to keep people guessing all while maintaining its crucial balance.
Not even the 2020 black swan, one of the most catastrophic market events to happen in a short time frame could stop it.
From the last cycle, everything has come back exactly the same in a different disguise.
When I witnessed the bottom in December 2018 (did not buy there), I also watched as countless articles called for the death of Bitcoin. No really! It sounds hard to believe but serious predictions were calling for it to go to $0.
It was watching that event unfold without taking action, that helped me to understand what bottoms look like.
When the 2020 Covid crash hit the market, I could feel it. Predictions came out that price was destined for 1k. I instantly remembered how it felt during that time in 2018, and it was repeating itself.
I was able to buy coins for around $4,500 then.
The cycles pushed through and brought us new ATHs, right on track in 2021.
I made my first big selling decision in April 2021 where I sold all my Bitcoin at 54k.
I took note of everything that was happening around me that day too. When it comes again, I know I will be able to sense it out using long-term data for firm guidance.
At the bottom in Nov 2022, I knew it, it was almost like instinct. Price flatlined at a low point, long-term data was bottomed out, and the masses were calling for 10k and a recession. I knew that 16.5k was the right time to buy.
Green Year is over now, and every part of it has remained precisely on track according to the cycles. You can read more about that in this post.
I think one of the greatest factors that allows them to continue like this are those that think this time will be different.
ETFs, recession, whatever the case may be, this time has been just like the others. So far, nothing has been more powerful than the structured cycles of Bitcoin.
Before we continue, I want to give a quick shout-out to my premium newsletter.
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Long-Term Analysis
A New Year’s Bitcoin Party
In my X post today, I showed how the beginning of Blue Year typically starts pretty well for price.
But besides our position in the cycle, is there any data that says we should be expecting good things for the immediate future?
I mean, after all, price has risen quite a bit with no noticeable pullbacks…
On X, I’ve already made several posts recently pointing out that our current move is not over, here are a few:
As I talked about earlier in our short-term analysis, the magic bands still point to higher price targets, and I want to rehash this:
For all of Bitcoin’s price action, there has always been a gravitational pull towards the primary bands.
These are the Bottom Band, Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3, and the Cycle Top Band.
They are darker in color compared to the rest.
Especially in bullish price action, a break of one primary band to the upside brings a move to the next.
And what would you know, price is currently resting just under a secondary band, the 1.5 level. This is at $39,000, and price has reached $38,500.
In only 1 example, price stopped there, which is marked with an 8. Bitcoin then made a temporary correction to Level 1 before blasting straight to level 2.
But keep in mind that level 2 had already been achieved at that point in the cycle after point 6.
There are 9 successful examples I have shown of price respecting these primary bands, and even more than that are not mentioned.
This was also the case for breaks of Level 2, which would send us to 3. It also works to the downside as well.
This model is extremely powerful for price, and Layer 2 is in sight at about $48,200.
These targets are usually reached quicker than not, and what better time to do it than on our first powerful move of Blue Year which is standard for each cycle.
In whatever way it comes for the short-term, I’m ready for the Blue Year party!
Investor Psychology
Always Focus on Long-term Data
The key to my success in crypto can be summed up in exactly this:
Always Focus on Long-Term Data
If you wonder what I mean by long-term data, check out this page of useful resources that I use every day.
People wonder how I avoid the natural human emotions of fear and greed, and make decisions without second guessing.
It’s because I never listen to stories.
I don’t care if Bitcoin will save the world, I don’t care how great of an asset it is, I don’t care that the macro seemingly looks terrible, I don’t care that ETFs may get approved!
Show me the price action!
I will act when it comes to me.
The power of the cycles keeps everything right on track, and I trust it to do that despite anything that could happen.
What happens if an ETF gets approved and price rockets? I watch long-term data and wait to see if it tops.
What happens if a recession comes and drags Bitcoin through the dirt? I wait to see how far and buy if long-term data says to.
I don’t try to anticipate it because you will never be able to guess the outcome.
Any event that I have ever seen move the market in a meaningful way came completely out of the blue, no one was expecting it.
The day will come again when Bitcoin reaches its cycle top, and people will be shouting at me about how stupid I am for selling with the power of ETFs at our back.
I will do the best I can, make the most informed decision possible, act, and not look back.
If it’s the top, great! If it’s not, that’s great too.
Why? Because the goal isn’t to nail the top, it’s to make that good informed decision. As long as I do this, I will always be content with the outcome.
Then in most cases, as I can now, you will be able to look back and see that it was the right thing to do.
If you are ever worried about something, ask yourself, is it a story based on something that hasn’t happened yet, or is it cold hard evidence based on long-term data from a multitude of sources?
Learn not to care about the news or future events, and you can sit near stress-free while also being on the right side of history. It’s a win-win.
That’s all for today’s newsletter, I hope you enjoyed! If you did, be sure to leave a like on this post, it helps me out a lot.
I hope you all have an amazing week, and I will see you next time!
Best wishes,
CryptoCon
Your investor psychology section nails it perfectly. I love how calm you sound despite the craziness of the market sometimes. We need this spirit during the bull run because noise is everywhere, and it affects us negatively in making decisions. I still remember that I had set an objective to sell my BTC when it reached 60k. It hit that price twice, and I never sold. I feel blessed to be here. Thanks, CC.
Man you have always been hitting it on a nail and for me I feel good being where I am today in the cycle and truly just appreciating life. If crypto dumps add more of crypto pumps parabolic watch long term data to make a decision. Your post helps keep the sane mentality as the last two years has taught me a lot but also became very draining as I more times than not found myself on the wrong side. Cheers and appreciate all you do for us!!! 💪🏽