When Altcoins Takeover (Unlocked)
Altcoin Data Newsletter Premium
Hello Everyone!
For quite some time now, we have been talking about the buying opportunity for Altcoins.
They typically give a much longer time to accumulate in optimal zones compared to Bitcoin and even Ethereum.
Some Altcoins are holding up well, but some just seem to continue to droop down lower through their bottoming ranges. Why is this?
We know that Altcoins in general are extremely undervalued, it doesn’t take a genius to see this.
Today, we’ll be taking a look at where Altcoins really begin to get some strength in the space. Some believe that this can only happen at the end of the cycle, and we’ll be taking a look today to see if that’s true.
As always, I’ll review 10 of the Altcoins you voted to see in this newsletter! We’ll be reviewing their risk, how good of a buying opportunity they are in, and a new addition: ATH reclaim Rating!
This is where I will give a rating based on how likely I think it is a particular coin can reach or surpass its previous ATH. This should give you an even better idea of what might be a good pick.
The Altcoins That Made This Newsletter:
KAS
WTK
CASPER
DYDX
TRIAS
CTK
ASTR
IOTA
GALA
BLUR
The Priority Alts Next Newsletter:
AXS
AVAX
NWC
ATOM
LINK
VET
MAGIC
API3
SOPH and TENET made the list but has no price action to analyze due to its early coin state.
It’s time to answer the question, “When do Altcoins Take Over?”
This Newsletter Will Cover…
Altcoin Market Overview - Dominance… the Other Cycle
Ethereum Analysis - ETH hits a bottom
Your Altcoins, Analyzed
What Should You Do?
Altcoin Market Overview
Dominance… the Other Cycle
The first thing I wanted to do was to take a closer look at Bitcoin Dominance. It is common to gloss over a critical aspect of it, which is 2 cycles ago.
Let me show you what I mean:
The Bitcoin Dominance metric begins in March 2014, which on the surface seems to be a period of flatlining up until 2017 where the metric became much more dynamic.
The main reason for this was the amount of other coins that were both available, and measured at the time. Bitcoin dominance was extremely high then.
But the flatlining period can be measured in more detail:
This is what a zoomed in view looks like on the supposed flatlining area, which gives us a lot of insight.
Dominance begins at a high point while the altcoin market was only beginning to develop. Ethereum had not even been introduced at this point.
The Bitcoin bottom takes place during metric stagnation, and the peak in strength on the 4th of November in 2015. We’ll be comparing this to cycle 3 in a moment.
Two massive losses in Bitcoin strength were during the second early Bitcoin top in July 2016, and the beginning of the big bull market run up in February 2017.
Now when we compare it to cycle 3, we start to notice some similarities.
Altcoins top out at very low Bitcoin dominance (Orange Dots) and Bitcoin bottoms somewhere in a sideways range (Green Dots).
There seems to be an interesting correlation with dominance, and the first and second early tops.
Using this info, let’s map out what dominance looks like on Bitcoin, this will help tell us when Alts will rise in the cycle.
Let’s go through the meanings of the symbols here:
Green Dot: Bitcoin Bottom in sideways dominance range.
Yellow Dot: First move out of the Bitcoin lows. Bitcoin dominance tops right after this point.
Purple Dot: Correction From Early Top. Altcoins peak in strength right after the drop from the second early top.
Red Dot: Altcoin cycle top after large move down on dominance.
Where I believe we are in the cycle is marked with blue flags. Altcoins gain strength during this time (arrow from yellow to purple) In route to the second early top which will be +/- 21 days from July 9th, 2024.
Fortunately, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin needs to drop during this time, if we are where I believe, Bitcoin either increases or goes sideways while altcoins rise.
Let’s look at the Altcoin Season Index:
Just as I have been expecting, the Altcoin Season Index is rapidly moving to Altcoin season after creating the bottom pivot point.
Technically, it is still Bitcoin season, but after the metric moves out of the green circled pivots, Alt season comes very quickly.
This aides in my analysis of Bitcoin dominance, I believe we are at a point like the red arrow in 2019. Altcoins were zooming to strength after the first early Bitcoin top then later in the year.
You’re probably wondering, which coins are going up? I myself am curious. Let’s take a look at the ones that are bringing us to alt season:
Most Altcoins are not doing that great, so no you’re not crazy. But a few are doing exceptional.
Altcoin season is defined by 75% of the top 50 coins doing better than Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
The top movers have been:
Maker
Kaspa
XDC Network
Link
Solana
This is important reminder to avoid a common crypto mistake, jumping ship.
It’s easy to have your eye on coins that are making big gains, and wanting a piece of the pie, especially if your coins are the ones that are suffering.
Remember that most coins will do well in a bull market.
Let’s check back on our TOTAL3 Observation from last newsletter:
With a Fibonacci retrace from the lows (red arrow) to the local highs (yellow arrow), I was able to find a
support level at the .236 retrace of the move.
Bitcoin continues to retest the line as support.
Look how similar the market structure is! I find it astonishing how many people expect much more downside for alts from here.
From this point last cycle, Alts were completely bottomed, barring the black swan event. I believe this fib level will hold as support.
Lastly for Altcoins, we’ll look at TOTAL2 which includes ETH:
Both Bitcoin and Altcoins are wildly cyclical. Which is why we should pay attention when we are close to rally based on our relative posisiton.
The Purple dots mark the pivot points in TOTAL2 for each cycle, of course with 2019 blocking out the black swan.
Both cycles have done this around November, no coincidence there. Important to note though that if our relative position is exact, there is typically slight decline for alts from September to Nov-Dec.
But this is where I think Alts will start to shine. Almost all alts will start to do well after new Bitcoin ATHs, which I believe is to come after Nov 28th, 2024.
Ethereum Analysis
ETH Hits a Bottom
Downside for ETH last newsletter was looking extremely limited. Price has just touched a very important trend while also balancing on important volume support.
Let’s take a look at that price action and volume again:
As expected, ETH is starting to have a small, but good reaction from the first dashed trend. This combos with price balancing on a huge block of volume support.
The idea of this observation is that if the first support does not hold, there is a pretty clear target underneath with the next strong volume support and trend labeled 2.
But hey… let’s hope we don’t need to use that!
ETH unlike Bitcoin, is in a confirmed downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Let’s continue to watch price’s reaction to the dashed trend.
Ethereum Dominance measures how well ETH is performing to all other coins. It has now touched what I would call its most important trend for the 5th time.
Interestingly, at about the same time the trend begun last cycle, in September of 2019.
Even if this trend does not continue to hold, I expect ETH.D to remain strong, it has already proven that it can do this throughout this cycle.
Sideways action doesn’t look good, but it does show that it has maintained strength through the 2022 bear market and until now.
The ETH/BTC ratio is a measure of how well Ethereum is doing compared to Bitcoin.
Since September of 2022, Ethereum’s strength has slowly dropped compared to Bitcoin. But I would argue that that is much stronger than last cycles performance, which you can see marked by the “Relative Time Period” arrow.
It seems likely that the ratio will touch the important trend marked 2 at some point, but possible not if we are at the same time as last cycle.
At the very least, December seems to be a time of strength for ETH compared to Bitcoin.
Lastly, We’ll take a look one of our profit/loss on chain metrics:
This measures the total Ethereum supply that is now worth less than when it was last moved.
As you can see, it’s a lot! The most since 2020 in fact.
I can’t imagine that Ethereum spends much more time in this high loss area. These pivot points in loss are excellent for marking local bottoms.
Sure, the metric could continue to rise, but based on the time spent in loss, that doesn’t seem likely.
This on top of the other positive signs like the support hold on the trend and volume profile.
Ethereum appears weak but actually looks quite strong.
Your Altcoins, Analyzed
It’s time to look at the altcoins you voted on in our Telegram Group for this newsletter!
Like I mentioned in the beginning, I’ll be featuring a new personal metric: ATH Reclaim Rating.
This can be one of three things: Unlikely to Meet, Likely to Meet, Likely to Exceed.
These will tell you how likely I think that a coin is to break above its previous All Time High.
Keep in mind I will be basing this only on the chart I see, and there is one large and important factor that will determine how likely this is: popularity. How popular a coin will be is almost impossible to determine. But the strength of the chart will give us a good idea.
Let’s jump in!
KAS
Market Cap: 976 Million
Risk/Reward: Low
Buying Opportunity: Selling Opportunity
ATH Reclaim Rating: Uncertain
Kaspa is one of the biggest movers in Altcoins, mentioned earlier in the newsletter.
But you can see this on the chart as well, price action is nothing short of parabolic.
I have rated the buying opportunity here, as a selling opportunity, which is not something I would say often outside the context of a cycle top.
Momentum on the last high seems to have weakened and while I don’t know for sure if the top is in here, it does seem likely. If you’re holding from lower prices this is a great profit take.
I have rated the ATH reclaim as uncertain, due to how close it already is to its ATH.
Make sure to note how you’re feeling if you’re holding this coin, is it euphoric? That’s what I see when I look at this chart.
WTK
Market Cap: 8.2 Million
Risk/Reward: Extreme
Buying Opportunity: Great
ATH Reclaim Rating: Likely to Meet
This coin put in two separate ATHs, one shortly after it was created in October of 2021, and a second unlikely high in the April 2022 bear market.
This coin’s risk is rated at extreme, due to it’s very low market cap at 8.2 million.
However, two other ratings seem positive, buying opportunity is great due to its position in the bottom range, and I have rated it likely to meet its previous ATH.
This is due to the low market cap being easier to move, and the strength seen on all highs it has made.
CASPER
Market Cap: 369 Million
Risk/Reward: Medium/High
Buying Opportunity: Uncertain
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
You may be wondering, where is the coin? That’s what I was thinking when I opened this particular chart.
Since May of 2021, the coin has completely flatlined. I would call this coin a complete pump and dump.
It put in an extreme high from its start, but take note that this happened in a singular day. A holder of this coin would be hoping for something similar to this happening again, better not sleep, cause it could be over in an hour!
It is rated as an uncertain buy due to its completely flatlined price action. I also have it rated as unlikely to meet its previous ATH, because it does in fact seem, very unlikely.
DYDX
Market Cap: 352 Million
Risk/Reward: Medium/High
Buying Opportunity: Great
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
This coin put in an ATH shortly after its creation in September 2021.
I don’t like that the coin made the high in September rather than November where most coins topped. This is because it seems the ATH was “rushed”.
This coin also retraced all of its gains and then some, another sign of weakness.
The buying opportunity is still rated at great based on its bottom range placement, but I do believe it is unlikely to meet its previous ATH based on the weak price action.
TRIAS
Market Cap: 24 Million
Risk/Reward: Very High
Buying Opportunity: Great
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
This coin was able to put in two highs for each cycle top in 2021, which is good. However, it did retrace back to its open price. Not the worst, but gives less of a chance of meeting its previous ATH I believe.
While the highs look similar to WTK, I think WTK showed slightly more strength throughout which is why the ATH reclaims are rated differently.
The Risk/Reward is very high on this coin with its very low market cap of 24 million.
I have rated it at a great buy due to its position in the bottom range.
CTK
Market Cap: 41 Million
Risk/Reward: High/Very High
Buying Opportunity: OK
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
This coin has yet to make a clear bottoming range. Well… it did, but price leaked through it.
Due to this, I have rated the buying opportunity as OK since while price is low, I cannot determine if this area will hold.
It put in a good run last cycle, but made a much weaker high in Nov 2021 which isn’t ideal.
I think this coin is unlikely to meet its previous ATH based on the lackluster bottom range price action, and weak second ATH.
ASTR
Market Cap: 265 Million
Risk/Reward: High
Buying Opportunity: Great
ATH Reclaim Rating: Likely to Exceed
Like the other coins, ASTR also remains firmly in its bottom range. For that reason it is rated as a great buy.
This coin made an ATH in April of 2022, after its price launch in Jan 2022.
I have also given it our first rating of likely to Exceed ATHs. While this isn’t for sure, because it has never made highs inside of a bull market, it seems likely that it would be able to do this.
I also like that it has had some decently dynamic price action, putting in a small high in February. This tells me that there is interest in the coin.
IOTA
Market Cap: 416 Million
Risk/Reward: Medium
Buying Opportunity: Near Perfect
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
This is our first near perfect buying opportunity, being right at the bottom of its bottom range.
However, I have rated it unlikely to meet even its previous ATH in April 2021 due to its weak price action from cycle to cycle.
This is a good representation of what to expect from many coins for the cycle, and something you should be prepared for. This is why I have rated many of the coins unlikely to meet.
Things like availability on different exchanges and popularity help with a coins chances of exceeding its previous ATH.
GALA
Market Cap: 324 Million
Risk/Reward: Medium/High
Buying Opportunity: Near Perfect
ATH Reclaim Rating: Unlikely to Meet
This coin was born right before the bull market in 2021, and put in quite an impressive run both during the April 2021 top and November top.
However, it did retrace most of its gains from the previous cycle. This is important because it says that long term confidence in the coin is low. A strong hold up would say the opposite. I have rated it unlikely to meet ATHs because of this.
This coin does however have another near perfect buy sitting right on the bottom of its bottom range.
BLUR
Market Cap: 165 Million
Risk/Reward: High
Buying Opportunity: Uncertain
ATH Reclaim Rating: Likely to Exceed
This coin was recently created this year in April of 2023.
I have rated it as an uncertain buy because it does not yet have a defined bottom range. However, with a fibonacci extension, it has reached the max retrace point of the tool which is the 4.236.
I have also drawn a curve to show the slowing momentum to the downside.
The ATH Reclaim Rating is likely to exceed, having never been through a bull market and also being recently created.
If you firmly believe in the project and its potential for popularity, you may buy this coin.
What Should You Do?
The what should you do section features our DCA Tools, subscribe to unlock this feature!
In Conclusion…
So, when will Altcoins take over? I would say soon!
I have already said they are due for strength, and overall they are already showing signs of that.
This doesn’t mean you should expect your altcoin to start running tomorrow, many of the ones that stay in their bottom ranges for long periods of time will not make big price action until the crypto space blows up again.
Ethereum looks strong on dominance, and its trend. This could be alluding to a turn around point for crypto as a whole.
Yep, and it’s still time to buy Altcoins!
Thanks for reading this edition of the Altcoin Data Newsletter, if you enjoyed be sure to leave a like!
Feel free to post any comments or questions you have, and I’ll try and get back with each and every one.
I hope you all have an amazing week, and I will see you next time!
Best wishes,
CryptoCon
Greatly appreciate your work and guidance, it's become a key part of my research tool box. Keep doing what you're doing CC, onwards and upwards for both you and Crypto on the whole ;-)
From all the newsletter I enjoy the altcoin one the most. Thank you legend! Always on top.