Hello Everyone!
Welcome back to my first Friday Video Update after my return.
In August 2025, I chose to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins because I believed data had grown exhausted and I thought the cycle was complete.
In this video, I’ll be briefly going over where I’m at and my thoughts on the market, to hopefully answer your questions!
Enjoy!
Summary (AI-Generated)
Video Overview
First update after exiting all Bitcoin and altcoin positions in August 2025.
Fully in cash since the sale; no plans to re-enter crypto or any other market in the near term.
Current conviction: the 2025 bull cycle is complete and a traditional bear market has begun as of November 28, 2025.
Halving Cycles Theory Performance
All major dots and timing windows hit with high accuracy throughout the cycle.
The final red dot (cycle top) landed on October 6, 2025 — perfectly inside the expected October–December window.
November 28, 2025 marked the exact start of Cycle Year 1 of Cycle 5 (the bear-market phase), lasting until November 28, 2026.
Theory is declared a complete success for this cycle; no reason to expect deviation from the traditional bull-then-bear structure.
Why the Abrupt Exit in August 2025
Multiple indicators that previously suggested “one more push” ultimately failed to trigger due to overwhelming bearish divergence.
Key examples of indicators that did not complete their bullish pattern:
SMIEO Phases: Expected a final fourth-phase cross (cycle-top signal); never happened because momentum was too weak.
Historical Volatility local lows: Every prior low-volatility period led to explosive upside; this time it broke the pattern and led to downside.
Fear & Greed Index: Anticipated a third move to Extreme Greed; instead formed a major bearish divergence and rolled over.
MVRV and other phase indicators: Unable to reach historical cycle-top thresholds because of diminishing momentum.
Bearish divergence was present across nearly every indicator, mirroring the hard-to-detect top in November 2021.
Supporting Cycle-Top Confirmations
Fibonacci Halving Extensions (vertical Fib time):
First top projected for March 2025 → missed by ~2 months.
Final top projected mid-to-late October 2025 → hit almost exactly (only ~2 weeks early).
Golden Ratio Multiplier:
Cycle top expected one level lower each cycle (level 5 this time).
Level 5 was hit very early (March 2024) and also coincided with the usual mid-cycle top level.
Ultimate price high in 2025 did not touch any new Golden Ratio level → again attributed to severe diminishing returns and bearish divergence.
Level 1 currently sits at ~$38,800 and has acted as a reliable cycle-bottom zone in every prior cycle (though not guaranteed this time).
Fear & Greed Index:
Current move to Extreme Fear is interpreted as confirmation of trend change and bear-market start (similar to early 2014, 2018, and 2022), not a buy signal.
The March 2025 Extreme Fear move was the “double-top dip” (already seen in prior double-top cycles).
Altcoin Situation
Performance described as an outright flop; no meaningful alt-season occurred.
Market is oversaturated with thousands of low-value or scam projects.
Lack of real value proposition beyond speculation killed upside potential.
Traditional alt-season is not expected from current levels; the cycle is considered over.
Current Market Stance & Philosophy
Bitcoin and crypto remain “fast money” with diminishing exponential returns; each new cycle must justify itself independently.
No automatic assumption that the next 4-year cycle will be profitable.
Cash is the highest-conviction position; will only re-enter any asset (crypto or otherwise) when risk-reward becomes overwhelmingly favorable again.
Bear markets are viewed as necessary and healthy — they create the low prices that make the next bull cycle profitable.
Forward Outlook
Traditional bear market expected to play out fully (until at least late 2026).
Cycle bottom price unknown; Golden Ratio Level 1 (~$38,800 and slowly declining) is one reference point, but undershooting remains possible.
Focus going forward: patient observation, navigating the bear market, and waiting for clear data-driven re-entry signals wherever they may appear.
