What Happened to Bitcoin?

My Return to Crypto After 1 1/2 years

Hello again!

Most of you reading this will know me, but if you do not, I am CryptoCon. Throughout 2018-2020 I was accumulating both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the majority of my accumulation being in 2020. In April 2021, I released my last newsletter of the time titled: Big Update: I am withdrawing my Bitcoin to an exchange. In that newsletter, I claimed that bitcoin had put in its top at 64k, and sold everything when bitcoin was at 54k. I was able to secure a 540% return on my entire investment, and with that I disappeared from crypto, unsure if I would return.

With the most recent event of FTX filing bankruptcy, and making out with millions of peoples funds, I began to explore the possibility that Bitcoin may have hit another bottom. And of course, my main goal is to help my subscribers be successful in crypto, so I have made a return.

So, What has happened to Bitcoin in the last 1 1/2 years? Let’s break it down.

I was correct that Bitcoin had topped at 64k (1), however I did not expect a second, final top to arise at 69k (2). Regardless, these tops can be considered lack luster compared to the predictions of the crypto community. Most were expecting at least a target of 100k. This makes absolute sense however, as greed kicks in, and outlandish price predictions garner more attention than conservative ones. I will be making my predictions even more conservative this cycle because of this.

Since then, Bitcoin has continued to drop and enter a year long (so far) bear market. I predicted this to be so. The point we are now reminds me of the circled area 2 cycles ago, where Bitcoin hit it’s lowest point. During this time, many articles were stating that Bitcoin would soon be worthless and go to 0. This was the best time to buy at a price of 3k before the top of 64k and 69k. As Bitcoin becomes more popular though, these type articles will become less and less common. Right now the common consensus is, “Bitcoin will go lower”, which leads me to believe it will probably not.

Here is some evidence to support this:

The lookintobitcoin Fibonacci bands successfully called the last top, as each cycle tops out at a lower Fibonacci line. This indicator is in heavily oversold territory, as shown by all the times this has happened in the green circles. These were the best buying opportunities for each cycle.

Coin Days Destroyed is a metric that shows when older coins (smart investors), are moved. Logically, there are two times when this happens most, at bottoms, and tops. Though, less so on bottoms. The green circled areas show spikes of activity among older coins that correspond with the best buying points in each cycle. You can see that this is happening now with a very noticeable uptick in movement.

The last metric I will include is the MVRV-Z score:

The MVRV-Z score takes the average price of Bitcoin, and compares is to extremes in movement. When price gets too far away from the average, it labels this as an extreme and this brings the metric closer to either the red or green zone. This is one metric that I used personally on my exit. It was able to successfully call the first Bitcoin top at 64k by entering the red zone. We have just entered the green zone, almost to the bottom of the channel, signaling yet again that this is an opportune buying time.

So what happens next?

As I stated on twitter, wedges have formed in each cycle, where price constricts and then eventually breaks out and catapults the next bull run. The latest wedge has not formed yet, and the depiction is just a possibility of what it could look like. I think that the bear market although has likely reached a bottom, still needs time to develop, and form more action over the 20k price mark. I do not think we are likely to see price ever fall below 10k again, but only time will tell.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS…

If you are waiting to buy at a lower price, I do not believe this is the wisest choice. You could be right, however, data is overwhelmingly pointing that this is the best buying opportunity of the cycle. It is now actually very risky to wait for price to go lower.

If your focus is to make money this upcoming Bitcoin cycle, as is mine, do not try to perfect your entry, that is impossible. Scaling in while indicators are in oversold territory has always been the best play.

You are competing against forces much larger than you, big entities with many millions, sometimes billions of dollars. If you want to win, you must think differently than most people in the space. I can help guide you there, but only you can make the right choices.

I will also be continuing my premium newsletter soon. I will include more charts and more of my own TA to make sense of Bitcoin long term. My mission will be to reach as many people as possible this cycle, to help them see the truth of the crypto space.

Good to be back,

CryptoCon