There's a Time to Wait, and a Time not to

Bitcoin Data Newsletter

Feb 06, 2023

Hello everyone!

Bitcoin has continued to push onwards throughout January, and the Bear Market seems to be getting left behind. I formatted it a little differently and covered some possible unexpected scenarios for this cycle. I concluded that the most likely of those scenarios is likely to be that Bitcoin again fails to reach 100k, as this would be the most surprising, but also most probable outcome.

This edition I would like to cover the current Bitcoin opportunity presented, and show the appropriate times to take action, and when not to.

Investing in Bitcoin and crypto and making money is really quite simple at its core and mostly consists of identifying the right opportunities and acting quickly upon them. Many people complicate this to try and make money faster or to attempt overcoming the boredom that is required to make long term gains, leading to failure.

Here is a dose of reality:

In order for you to win and make money, someone must lose
Most people will not be successful in crypto
Trading is a scam, that will make you broke
Making money that you can keep requires patience

If you disagree with any of these points, I encourage you to read this newsletter in its entirety to understand why all of this is true. I have bought the bottom of Bitcoin and sold the top, and I am here to help you. This newsletter I will go over the psychology that you need to develop to make money in crypto.

This Newsletter Will Cover…

What The Data is Saying
The Bitcoin opportunity you have right now
Why you can’t make money
What it takes to be a winner

What Does the Data Say?

To put it simply, according to most indicators the absolute best buying prices are probably gone unfortunately, but you still have a chance.

Relative Unrealized Profit paints this picture clearly. The green zone represents a unrealized profit below 0 or unrealized loss, identifying a good time to buy, while the red band signals high unrealized profit from most Bitcoin holders, saying it is a good time to sell. This indicator has been accurate at calling all macro tops and bottoms since 2013.

Looking back at the same points when unrealized profit came out of the buy area, would put us at the same point in previous cycles as the start to every bull market. There is tremendous room for upside here, and it seems unlikely that unrealized profit would return to the buy zone.

This correlates with most indicators that we have. Waiting now will cause you to miss out. Taking action now and buying will allow you to have bought at very good prices for the cycle. Once you take action, then it is time to wait.

The Bitcoin Buying Opportunity

As I have been posting on Twitter recently, many charts point that the Bull Market is here and now is the time to buy. As price continues forward it is very possible that the current prices will never be seen again. Many people were very bearish during the sideways price action around 16.5k, and the bias is now starting to flip bullish. This rally clearly seems different to many people, as a 56% increase from the lows is quite a stretch to call a bear market rally.

The opportunity you are seeing now is actually quite rare when you consider how little time you would have had to buy Bitcoin at prices like $5,000 last cycle before the tops of $64,000 and $69,000. Data shows that buying at current prices is similar to that scenario for this cycle.

As many were betting on further downside at 16.5k prices, a large portion of those same people are now changing their minds and waiting for their opportunity to buy back in. Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that you will get another chance to buy at prices like 16.5k or even 20k, as those areas are now in high demand. Getting in at the best cycle buying prices requires tremendous fortitude against narratives like an impending recession and being able to identify the buying opportunity that no one else sees.

So, since price is starting to run up, the logical thing to do would be to wait for a large pullback in price, right? Well, not according to history.

This simple illustration paints our current point in the Bitcoin cycle, as all the highlighted points are the start to the cycle bull market, which is where current data says we are.

Only last cycle was the buying opportunity of $5,300 seen again, due to the COVID black swan of 2020. Even then, that time was extremely brief.

These would have been considered in hindsight some of the best cycle buying prices, but those that did not buy at these levels opted to wait for lower prices or had a certain price in mind that Bitcoin had to reach before they bought. You will miss out if this is your mentality.

Those of you that choose to wait on a recession that is extremely likely not to come will continue to miss out on the amazing buying opportunity that you still have. Every Bitcoin cycle, a different story arises as to why Bitcoin will go to 0, or why lower prices will come, at the bottom. This is what most people are thinking and why they are not able to make money.

Why is Making Money so Hard?

While there is some challenge in identifying good opportunities to buy and sell, most of the challenge is really overcoming impatience. Challenges arise when people want overnight riches or feel they don’t have enough money to invest in Bitcoin or crypto to make it worthwhile.

This leads to two major issues, buying and selling at the wrong times, and trading.

“But trading isn’t bad! some people can do it and make tons of money!” That’s the allure anyways… Trading is gambling, as statistics show that only 5% of traders are even profitable at all.

Successful trading strategies usually have a win rate of just over 50%, meaning only slightly more than half the time you will win. Even if you manage to be profitable, it is almost impossible that you will be able to beat buy and hold. Trading stimulates your mind in the same way gambling does, and makes you feel accomplished because you are actively making decisions.

When you lose money, you are very likely to have the desire to try and make that money back, by using leverage and much more funds to multiply your earnings. This is a long deceptive road that can cause you to lose everything.

The other main issue that impatience causes buying and selling at the wrong times.

People hear about Bitcoin and crypto at different times and come at different points in the cycle. Most commonly as Bitcoin gains attention in the Bull Market, people find themselves coming in at the top. Of course, the correct thing to do would be to wait until indicators are telling you to buy at the next cycle bottom, but un-education and excitement clouds judgement.

Periods in-between cycle bottoms and tops can be quite long, with bear markets lasting about 1 year each and bull markets 3 years. Ideally you would be buying at the bear market bottom and wait an entire 3 years until making another decision, which ca be extremely boring at times of stagnation or downturns.

This is the reality of making money, it requires patience and a multi-year time frame.

How do I Become a Winner?

In crypto there are winners and losers. Most are losers. There will always be the loser that buys the top and sells the bottom. The winner is the one selling those coins to them at the top and buying from them at the bottom.

To be a winner, you have to invert your thinking, listen to the data, which will usually tell you to do the opposite thing everyone else is doing.

The Pi Cycle top indicator was able to call the last Bitcoin top on the day. Indicators like this exist in many places, you just have to utilize them. This was one of the indicators that I used in my reasoning for exit in April of 2021.

You probably have doubts about buying at current Bitcoin prices, what if a recession comes? Technical Analysis and indicators don’t work in a recession. What if price drops below 20k and I could have gotten in at a better price? These are loser thoughts; it is what most are thinking. The bull run is here and those that continue to speculate will be left behind.

The bull run rally can take off quicker than you expect, and by the time you have made up your mind it will be too late. If you want to be a winner, you need to take action while you still can.

In Conclusion:

There are times to wait in crypto, in fact that is most of what you should be doing in order to make good returns. Now is the time to act, and I am trying my best to warn you that your time to buy at good cycle prices is very short.

Winners take action at the correct times and wait the rest. Trading crypto will cause you to lose all of your money, stay far away from it.

The data says that now is still a good chance to buy even though the absolute best prices may be gone, seize the opportunity you have currently.

Thanks for reading! The premium newsletter will release later today. It includes 100% exclusive content, and I will be reviewing on chain metrics and other data in detail. I will also be reviewing some things I am watching for to gauge the next cycle top.

Please comment if you have any questions!

Best Wishes,

CryptoCon