One Step Ahead

Bitcoin Data Newsletter

Hello everyone!

You have probably heard at some point in time in your Bitcoin journey that “The majority cannot be correct.” This is absolutely true, and makes it imperative that you know what the majority is thinking, so you can be one step ahead of them and be successful.

There is actually a great chance that you yourself are part of the majority, as by definition most people are. It can be hard to identify what the majority is actually thinking, as most times the narratives are powerful, and seem correct on the surface.

In this edition of the Bitcoin Data Newsletter, I’m going to teach you exactly how to think one step ahead of the rest no matter the circumstance, so that you can break free and be part of the few that are able to profit.

This Newsletter Will Cover…

• Layers of Thinking

• Tying to Bitcoin

• Facts vs Stories

• Winning the Game

Layers of Thinking

Buying and selling Bitcoin at the correct times is game. You have competitors, winners and losers. In this game, you are in contest to see how much money you can win from others, counting on their mistakes in order to profit.

I am going to compare this game to chess, you will not need to know the game in order to understand what I am saying, as I will not reference any specific moves or pieces.

Chess makes an expert analogy for many situations, as it is a game that that requires pure skill and outsmarting your opponent. In any competitive game, there are different skill levels, and as you advance the ladder, you will come across different layers of thinking.

Layer 1 - Novice

At this layer, players think at surface level. They move pieces without much care or thought, as they likely have never seriously tried to win. They think only of themselves and their own moves, and do not consider what they think their opponent might do.

This is your casual player, that understands how chess pieces are able to move, but does not concern themselves with any type of strategy.

Layer 2 - Intermediate

Now, competitors start to think about what their opponent may be thinking. Strategy starts to form in this layer as it becomes a guessing game of what your opponent’s next move, and then crafting where you will move based on what the opponent might do. Most thinkers stop here, but it goes deeper.

Layer 3 - Advanced

At this point, not only are you thinking where your opponent might move, but also where they think you might move. This requires much intense thought, as Layer 2 thinking requires you only to know what their best move is, but now you must try to think about how they are guessing you will play. Strategy is greatly intensified at this level as you must now think 2 steps ahead.

Layer 4 - Master

This is the final layer of thinking, and only exists at the most advanced levels of competition. It is also the most difficult to explain. At this point in thinking, not only are you thinking of the best move of your opponent and what they think your best move is, you are then trying to circumnavigate their thinking of your move as you attempt to either do exactly what they are thinking you will do, or something entirely different. Players may intentionally make moves that seem incorrect in order to throw the other person off. It is an intense mind game of jumping from obvious moves to non-obvious ones. The other person must now predict if you either using regular or inverse psychology on them.

As you advance up the ladder of competition, you will find that you progress through these different layers. Novices can sometimes trick even the master level thinkers as the masters play assuming you have an advanced understanding but do not realize you are making simple moves with no thought.

There have been professional observations of these levels of thinking, with the best example being the Keynesian beauty contest.

The Keynesian beauty contest is a concept introduced by economist John Maynard Keynes to explain price fluctuations in equity markets. It uses an analogy of a newspaper beauty contest, where participants are asked to choose the most attractive faces from a set of pictures. However, the goal is to select the faces that will be most popular among all participants, rather than the entrant's personal favorites. This leads to contestants considering not only their own preferences, but also the preferences of others, in an attempt to predict the majority opinion.

Keynes also applied this psychology to behaviors in the stock market, where investors base their decisions not on the fundamental value of assets, but rather on their expectations of what other investors believe the majority opinion is regarding asset value. This results in multiple layers of speculation, as investors try to anticipate the average opinion of others, leading to price fluctuations and market volatility.

I encourage you to research this experiment further, to truly understand the difficulty of thinking ahead of others.

Now that you understand these different layers, it’s time to relate to Bitcoin so you can apply the thinking.

Tying to Bitcoin

The question then becomes, at what level of competition do Bitcoiner’s operate? The answer is advanced. This is the layer of thinking you will need to use in order to be maximally successful, and layer 4 thinking does not give you any additional advantage. Let’s revisit the layers, but then tie them to different Bitcoiner’s.

Layer 1 - The Non-Thinker (Novice)

People in Bitcoin that think at this level do not look at data, and do not pay attention to most things that are going on in the crypto space. Because of this, every buy and sell have little thought. It could be as simple as they saw something about Bitcoin on the news and decided to buy. They do not look at price most days, and may decide to sell their Bitcoin at a later date if they need the money. You may think this is the majority, but that is not the case.

Layer 2 - The Crypto-Goer (Intermediate)

This is the layer that contains the majority of thinkers. Many of them have been in the crypto space for several years and consider themselves to have an advanced understanding. They keep themselves in this layer because they think they are smarter than they are but are rather believing everything they have been told.

The people in this layer include many analysts, HODLers, and big names in the crypto space. They think that Bitcoin is an amazing technology that will save the world and reach outlandish price targets.

These are the people that are the most exploited, as they are inclined to believe whatever the majority is saying and allow the advanced thinkers to take advantage of them. They make what they think are good, informed decisions but rather than having these decisions be based on data, they are based on emotions and stories.

They think they are the non-majority, and the majority are those that have not adopted crypto. While simultaneously believing everything that is told to them inside of their own space.

Layer 3 - The Successful (Advanced)

This is layer of thinking that allows you to profit. In this layer, people realize that crypto is a game of riding the greed of others that believe what they are told. They realize that holding onto crypto long term is getting less effective over time, as any investment does. Their ears are completely turned off to the things people say, and completely focused on the data, which is the only teller of truth.

They also understand that you must think ahead of others that are watching the data, as they know that many indicators will not accurately tell you when to sell as everyone waits for them to go in the red zones.

Most people believe they are Layer 3 thinkers but are actually Layer 2. The majority does not understand they are majority.

The main cause of this are narratives that circulate around the crypto space. They are extremely convincing, and most people believe them. They are powerful, and horridly wrong.

Stories vs. Facts

Why is so hard to buy low and sell high? Why can’t I be an advanced thinker? I want to take you back just 4 months ago… Bitcoin price, $16,500.

A Recession is coming!! You don’t understand the macro environment! Bitcoin will go to 12k, Bitcoin will go to 10k! Here is a chart with a line drawn down to 10k for proof!

Was this you? Do you remember this? Most people were too scared to buy. The macro was supposedly uncertain which is an element outside of Bitcoin that most people don’t understand.

The intermediate thinkers in mass called for recession and lower prices after Bitcoin had already bottomed. They thought they knew something that most didn’t, but all the while they were the majority believing exactly what they had been told.

Now I want to take you back again, this time a bit further… April 2021, Bitcoin price: $60,000.

Bitcoin is going to 100k at least, but most likely 250k! The dollar will be destroyed through inflation and Bitcoin will become the new world currency, mass adoption is coming, super cycle! Stock-to-Flow! Anyone that sells their Bitcoin is an idiot!

This was the reality, at the top. Influencers across the board screaming at you to buy buy buy! Everyone unanimously chanting for an inevitable 100k. And then, Bitcoin just didn’t. It couldn’t. It was never going to at the time. Why? Because data said Bitcoin was done. Advanced thinkers took profit from the chanters. They took their money!

Surely it couldn’t happen again….

It will!!

Bitcoin will become overvalued once again, and most people will believe everything they are told. The new narrative will be convincing, as it always is. Mass adoption, hyperinflation, super-cycle, S-curve, or possibly a convincing model like stock-to-flow.

How do you stop it?

Turn off your ears, and look at the facts (long term data, from as many sources as possible.)

Winning the Game

Then how do I win?

The first step is to prepare your mind for the narratives that will appear. You need to assume that when the next Bitcoin top is in the making, people will be telling you the same things they do every cycle. It will feel wrong to make the right choice.

You also need to think a step ahead when you are looking at the data.

Many people will be looking at data like this to determine when they will sell their Bitcoin. But do you really think it’s that easy? Last cycle during the April 2021 top when I sold everything, I theorized that data like this would not all reach the red zones, because everyone waiting on the indicators to go overextended had changed the psychology. Which was absolutely correct.

Look at the cycle top. See how it barely touches the red zone? Well guess what, the indicator did not touch the red zone last cycle. This indicator was retrofitted.

Here is picture of this same indicator, in May 2021. It failed. This red zone and the data was then adjusted to fit. This is the reality. Even in data, you are still in competition! People sold right before the indicator reached the red zone, while others held waiting for it.

Many indicators completely failed last cycle, including logarithmic growth curves, the 200-week Moving Average Heat Map, RHODL, and many others.

You have to be thinking ahead. It will happen again. Many indicators will fail and miss the red zones. But some will win.

When some indicators, even a few, reach close to or in their overheat zones, you must pay attention. The stars will not align for everyone to sell. Your competition is smart. They already know what you’re thinking.

The only people that can enter the 3rd layer, are those that think for themselves. Crypto influencers across the board left everyone hopeless last cycle as they consistently called for overly optimistic price valuations. They will do it again, and many will believe them. More followers does not equal increased accuracy.

Some influencers even cherry pick charts that support their thesis, which is why it is of upmost importance to get data from as many sources as possible. It is the key. Trading view indicators and TA, lookintobitcoin.com, chainexposed.com, and blockchain.com are all great absolutely free resources to use to help you. Glassnode is expensive, but a good paid resource, which gives you access to even more data that will give you a competitive edge.

I speak to those who want to enter the 3rd layer, and whose goal is to profit maximally. I am not here to see how much Bitcoin I can acquire; I am here to make money. I have done it, and you can too.

Thanks for reading this edition of the Bitcoin Data Newsletter! The Premium Newsletter will release later today where I will discuss when the mid-top will be, and at what price. Premium subscribers also get access to a private general discussion telegram where I now post daily forecasts and go into depth on my daily Twitter posts.

Good luck to everyone on their own individual journey!

Best Wishes,

CryptoCon