Hello Everyone!
Welcome back to a Friday video update.
We’ll be discussing my post on X about Holder Net Position Change, as well as some other interesting on-chain data I have covered in the past.
There is some data that suggests an earlier than would-be cycle top according to the Halving Cycles Theory. Is it possible? This data says so!
Enjoy!
Quick Summary
An interesting pattern has occurred on the Holder Net Position change with a large negative spike
Many have attributed this to the GBTC selling, which is possible but I am focusing on the cycle and price correlation
These negative spikes have in most cases led to the start of a cycle parabola, completing within about 1 year. Some other instances have been cycle bottoms and just after the 2019 mid-top
To confirm parabolic price action, price needs to continue to be… parabolic
Another observation I mentioned in October 2023 showed an out-of-the-norm spike in MSOL activity. The idea was that this could be an interesting price continuation signal
Price did end up experiencing a massive continuation from that point. Whatever the reason may have been for the on-chain activity, the pattern held true
Another on-chain observation points to an early parabola, the 2-3 year total supply last active
Again this observation was written off as meaningless by many, but the pattern has been clear: a massive decline in the 2-3y holder supply has triggered the cycle parabola to complete within about a year
While these observations go against the way that I believe cycles are structured, in the end I am willing to accept whatever price action turns out to be true
The goal is to get the best cycle sell possible, whenever that comes, using long-term data from many sources
