Hello Everyone!
Welcome back to the first Friday Video update in some time, as prices have stagnated and we await the next big move.
In this video, we’ll be going over some of my latest posts, like SOPR cycles and the Simple Bands, as well as covering our current bear market position compared to other cycles.
Enjoy!
Summary (AI Generated)
Bitcoin Market Overview
Bitcoin has traded sideways for the past two months within a range of $60,000 to $76,000 and currently sits near $67,000, roughly at the midpoint of that range.
Price action at this stage aligns with the expected behavior during the first low of the bear market according to halving cycle theory.
The second low and final cycle bottom are still ahead.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Analysis
SOPR functions as a profit/loss indicator similar to NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), showing the level of profit or loss held by investors.
High-profit levels were reached three times in the current cycle: March 2024, November 2024, and July 2025 — consistent with typical cycle-top behavior.
Following the July 2025 peak, the metric has moved into a zone of lower profit/higher loss but has not yet reached the maximum-loss (high-loss) green zone that historically signals a cycle bottom.
The current orange-highlighted relative position matches the February–June 2018 period and the April 2014 period in prior cycles (roughly midway through the bear market).
A stronger historical parallel is the 2018 decline from $6,000 to a firm bottom at $3,000 in December 2018.
Return to the high-loss zone is anticipated between November 2026 and January 2027, which would likely mark the cycle bottom (or possibly require an additional move afterward).
While SOPR is not perfectly precise (e.g., false signals in September 2014 and January 2021), it has reliably guided overall cycle direction.
Bear Market Drawdown Comparison
From the October 2025 cycle top, Bitcoin is currently down approximately 47 %.
Comparative drawdowns at the same point in prior cycles:
Cycle 1 (2014): –49 %
Cycle 2 (2018): –66 %
Cycle 3 (2022): –54 %
All three prior bear markets converge into a “unification zone” between June and September 2026, after which they diverge toward their respective cycle bottoms.
Possible cycle-bottom drawdowns range from 77 % to 86 % from the cycle top; the current cycle has so far shown a milder drawdown than previous ones, but this is not guaranteed to continue.
A cycle bottom as high as the low $50,000s remains possible within the expected range.
Simple Bands Metric
Simple Bands are constructed using realized market cap adjusted to price (distinct from volume-weighted “Magic Bands”).
The green band accurately captures cycle bottoms; the red band captures cycle tops; the middle line serves as a bullish/bearish regime indicator.
Bitcoin has moved below the midline and successfully retested it as resistance.
Timing of this midline retest (April 2026) closely matches historical analogs: May 2022, March 2018, and April 2014.
Historical pattern shows two retests of the cycle-bottom band; the first retest has been the actual bottom in two prior cycles, while the third cycle required a second retest.
Current cycle-bottom band sits near $42,000 (subject to minor future adjustment).
Halving Cycles Theory Timeline
The market is currently in the “first low” phase, marked by the hollow orange dot.
First-low window (January–March) was realized exactly as forecasted in February 2026.
Second-low window: August–October 2026.
Cycle-bottom window: November 2026–January 2027.
All three major cycle phases still have significant time remaining to develop.
Cycle-Bottom Confirmation Criteria
Several metrics (including weekly RSI) have reached levels historically associated with cycle bottoms, but these alone are insufficient.
The current timeframe falls outside the halving-cycle theory’s cycle-bottom window.
Key cycle-bottom thresholds on multiple metrics have not yet been met.
Market psychology does not yet reflect the extreme pessimism and “guaranteed negative outcome” narratives (recession, Bitcoin’s death, quantum-computing threats, etc.) typically observed at true cycle lows.
A mix of lingering optimism persists, which is inconsistent with cycle-bottom conditions.
Overall Outlook
The bear market is considered ongoing and not yet complete.
Patience is advised while waiting for higher-conviction entry opportunities aligned with cycle-bottom signals.
Although some risk exists that price could advance without a deeper drawdown, waiting for clearer cycle completion is viewed as the higher-probability approach for improved outcomes.
Multiple independent data sets (SOPR, Simple Bands, halving cycle timing, drawdown comparisons, and psychology) collectively point toward additional downside and time required before the cycle bottom is reached.
