Bitcoin, The Game is Rigged

Bitcoin Data Newsletter

Hello Everyone!

In this edition of the Bitcoin Data Newsletter, I want to focus on the innerworkings of Bitcoin’s price action. At times, investing in Bitcoin can feel like a game that is unfair, designed for you to lose. That is actually partially true, which is why it is imperative that I show you how you can beat this game and rig it into your favor.

Most people can acknowledge that markets are probably rigged and manipulated to some degree, but unable to determine exactly how.

It’s time to enlighten you to how the game is really played, so that you can profit maximally.

In This Newsletter…

• Something is Going on Behind the Scenes…

• Bitcoin is not the Stock Market

• Time is Running Out

• The 4 Year cycle

Behind the Scenes…

It’s no secret that Bitcoin is deeply intertwined with the meme community, especially when you consider the popularity of meme coins like DOGE, SHIB, and now PEPE. It is a regret that this needs to mentioned but think back to the last All Time High for Bitcoin.

$69,000… on the dollar, according to Coinbase price data. I do not need to explain the significance of this number to you, if you are unfamiliar, you can do some internet research. Do you really think this was a coincidence? Do you understand the amount of influence on price that it takes to make this the exact Bitcoin top, on the dollar? Tremendous.

This type of humor is typically attributed to a younger generation, meaning that whoever is influencing Bitcoin price behind the scenes is likely a group of younger people that have either collected an unprecedented amount of Bitcoin early in its time, or possibly even the creators of Bitcoin are behind it.

This is an asset that many consider to be a serious long-term investment and separate it from things like meme coins citing that it has true value. Are you so sure? A popular narrative is “Bitcoin is not Crypto.” I can assure you it most certainly is. There is nothing inherently great about Bitcoin’s specific technology, as now it can be replicated. The other thing that is attributed to Bitcoin’s greatness is the anonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

How much Bitcoin does this creator have? There is no way to know for sure. How much have they distributed in their network? Also unknown. People in the Bitcoin community worship this creator as some sort of deity, unsusceptible to the greed of common man, but what if, you are just part of the grand scheme.

I want to segway into the purpose of saying all of this, you are playing a game! It is rigged to provide profit to those that take advantage of the cycles of fear and greed and ride the backs of those that falsely believe in the savior like picture Bitcoin paints. It transfers money from those who do not understand Bitcoin’s cycles, to those who do.

So what… Bitcoin hits a meme number as it’s All Time High, no big deal, maybe it was a coincidence… or who cares…

Let’s talk about some other suspicious activity…

Coinbase has been well known for shutting down its operations at convenient times, particularly on large Bitcoin market drops and rises. Do you think this a coincidence too? Shutting down operations during peak volatility on one of the world’s largest exchanges? This has been going on for many years. Why would they do this? It allows them to halt trading activity during convenient points, likely to move around their own coins before resuming the commonfolk’s activity. Speculation? Or deceit?

Many tops and bottoms for Bitcoin have been marked by major events internal to Bitcoin, such as the November 2022 bottom of the FTX collapse, or even peaks like April 2021, where the Coinbase IPO was first listed, or December 2017 when Bitcoin was listed on CME futures. You could call this conspiracy, but we already know organized scheming takes place with many other cryptos.

A creator makes a coin, keeps most of the coin for themselves and a small group of people, pays others to talk about the coin, drive up the price, and then they sell their coins at a profit and take everyone’s money, success! The only coin that people seem to turn a blind eye to this effect is Bitcoin, why? Because it is the most popular crypto, that is the only thing that truly separates it from others. It was the first and gained the most popularity.

Whether or not this is speculation I will leave up to you, but many people treat this as a serious long-term investment! Would you consider any meme coin a serious long-term investment? Unlikely. The unfortunate reality is, Bitcoin is a meme coin. People laugh at coins like DOGE, but some people are able to profit tremendously off them. Crypto is a virtual casino, but you can be the house. The house in the casino is able to profit by taking advantage of others greed. Even though those that play the casino games know the odds are not in their favor, they will continue to play in hopes that they could have the tremendously small chance they win the jackpot.

The biggest difference above all that separates Bitcoin from other coins in people’s mind, is price action. Over time, Bitcoin has been profitable, and much more so than any other investment in history consistently. But that time is growing shorter, which we will discuss later in the newsletter.

This isn’t to say something like the stock market isn’t rigged, it clearly is. Take a look at the GameStop Stock where it essentially turned into an Alt Coin for a brief period, causing trading platforms to halt activity due to “volatility”. Volatility isn’t an issue, unless that volatility is caused by traders infiltrating the stock market with their own ideology which causes people in power to put it to a stop. It is clear that there are much larger forces at play that make the rules, and Bitcoin is certainly no exception.

Bitcoin is Not the Stock Market

When people defend Bitcoin as a long-term investment, they take great pleasure in citing the returns of the stock market, but truly you cannot compare the two. And I do not mean that in a positive way for Bitcoin as most believers do, there are some key differences in price action that separate it from the stock market.

Some people use Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, or a retirement plan, but I theorize that it simply will not be effective. When things like this are said, it is popular to counter that with quotes of people’s doubts about Bitcoin early in its history.

Things such as “Look at this person that said he can’t believe he sold at 2 dollars.” Yes, that does look quite silly in hindsight, but so would it have if you saw someone saying they sold any asset early in its inception. Let’s take a look at Bitcoin vs the S&P 500.

This is SPX or the S&P500, you can invest in SPX through index funds which track the performance of top companies. Theoretically, if you would have held onto an index fund that tracked SPX from 4 points, you would now have 100x the money you invested. But here’s the catch, you would have waited 90 years for this to happen, buying at the bottom of the great depression crash in 1932. This is an example of consistent gains, where year over year, gains continue at a steady rate.

The average annual return for the S&P 500 for the past 20 years has been approximately 9%.

Now let’s look at Bitcoin:

Comparing similar numbers on Bitcoin gives a much different result, the advance from 4 dollars to 4000 dollars took just 6 years, between 2011 to 2017. People confuse consistent gains, with exponential gains.

Bitcoin is an exponential asset, but those things that are exponential, cannot stay that way. Attempting to draw a straight arrow of gains on this chart as done on SPX is not even possible, as it fits to a curve. Curves eventually flatten out. Logarithmic curves, which can be fitted to Bitcoin’s price data, eventually flatten to near 0 growth. No singular asset in History has ever…. continued to provide exponential gains, but people seem to give Bitcoin the pass because they believe it is revolutionary.

This is the facts of the chart, whether you like it or not. What happens when the logarithmic curves flatten to near 0 gains? People holding onto Bitcoin long term hope mass adoption, and inflationary hedge narratives will save them. Do you really want to base your future financial situation on a feeling? How do feelings usually play out for those that count on them for financial decisions? Not well.

Bitcoin operates by providing gains to those that take advantage of its cycles, but that time is growing short.

You are Running Out of Time

Because Bitcoin is an exponential asset, and not a continuous one, you must understand you are running out of time to take advantage of the Bitcoin cycles. The great benefit of these Bitcoin cycles is that they are unique to Bitcoin, and using long term data you can identify points of maximum opportunity to buy and sell.

If I am indeed correct, and greed is the true driver of the Bitcoin adoption engine, it will be extinguished as returns diminish.

Whether you want to believe it or not, most people are not here for the blockchain technology behind Bitcoin, they are here to make money. They like Bitcoin because it can make them a lot of it. However, this is becoming less and less true over time, which will naturally cause waning adoption for those that flock to Bitcoin for monetary gain. I will show you how the price action clearly proves this:

Before you look at this chart, I want you to forget the narratives you have heard (Bitcoin inflation hedge, Bitcoin to 1 Million, Mass Adoption, Bitcoin World Reserve Currency.) These quite frankly are part of a cultish mindset the community has ingrained you with to spur adoption. If you were able to do this, even for a moment, now take a look at the chart before you.

The chart I have displayed shows you only the facts, (minus one projected percentage which is the final one outlined in green. (433%)) It is the Bitcoin price. I have outlined two different percentage gains. Let’s first focus on the green highlighted percentages, which are gains from bottoms to peaks of each cycle. Take a hard look at the numbers. I will list them for you.

• 65,234% (652x)

• 56,266% (562x)

• 11680% (116x)

• 2,107% (21x)

For the past two cycles, the percentage gains have been a fifth of the previous cycle. Which would imply that if this trend continues this cycle, the peak would be a mere $81,000 (a 433% increase) which is just $12,000 more than the cycle before it.

You must remove your emotions and look at this clearly. Lotery players dream of hitting the jackpot, which is what continues to keep them playing. But you hoping for the entire world to “adopt” Bitcoin and then make you rich isn’t the same mentality? Look at the numbers! It is logical to expect the returns to diminish as it continues to require more and more money to move price, trillions of dollars to push past ATHs. Do not be blinded by greed, look at the facts, look at the data, they will tell you the ultimate truth.

People will make excuses and justify why last cycles numbers were so low. Do not do this. It is time to wake up and accept reality, the percentage returns are shrinking drastically.

There is another percentage highlighted on the chart in red, this is the percentage gains from lows to lows. This number is important for those that believe in HODLing. Returns for you are decreasing drastically as well! If you were to have bought all of your coins at the exact bottom of last cycle at $3,300, there is only a 400% gain to this cycle’s bottom. “But that’s still a very good return!” Yes it is, for now. but look at how rapidly that is decreasing. It is possible that during next cycle’s bear market, if you were to have held and not sold, even at the best possible buying prices, you will be break even.

Holding onto an exponential asset long term is not effective. Do not tout previous returns of an exponential asset to defend your position. You must break free of the mind trap that has been created.

Now I will transition into the solution, you may be thinking at this point, “I get it you don’t believe in Bitcoin long term, what’s the harm in letting people do it?”

Truly there is none, and if that’s the risk you would like to take so be it, but now the risk is starting to outweigh the reward as is proof by the numbers.

As contradictory as it sounds, the safest play now is actually to buy and sell according long term data. It has proven to be reliable, I am proof. I have bought two Bitcoin bottoms and sold near the last top using it, and in the event I am correct, and returns continue to harshly diminish, I will have exited according to long term data without suffering the downside.

Even if I am wrong and returns are not symmetrically diminishing, I still win! Because long term data will pave the way for me to make the right decision. What’s the downside? Well, it takes effort, and courage, that’s it. It was difficult to buy at 16.5k when everyone was saying a recession is coming. It was even more difficult to sell at 54k when everyone was saying 100k was inevitable but look at what it can do. EVEN with taxes, and an imperfect exit, it was worth it.

Rigging the Game in Your Favor, (4 Year Cycle)

As I had stated earlier, unlike the traditional stock market, Bitcoin goes through cycles of its own which have proved to be about 4 years in length.

Now most people believe, as I used to, that this is due to the halving mechanic, where every 4 years the reward for Bitcoin miners is cut in half, reducing supply, maintaining demand, causing prices to rise. However now it seems quite unlikely that this continues to be the case as the new supply introduced by miners is extremely low relative to total supply, especially when considering how much money it takes to move the market at this point.

So now I believe the following factors are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price and structured cycles:

• World Liquidity (Total available liquid cash)

• The first halving

• Greed

World liquidity is a measurement of how much money is readily available in the world considering many factors. The amount of which will always have a direct effect on how much Bitcoin is able to rise. The first halving I do believe played a role in affecting the Bitcoin price, as then in 2012 the market cap was relatively low allowing for a greater influence by the supply of Bitcoin introduced by Bitcoin miners.

My November 28th Cycles Theory I believe outlines this very clearly:

After the first halving, a structure around that specific date (November 28th), was formed, and has been a significant point for every cycle high and low coming in at an average of +/- 21 days from the date.

This could also be contributed to manipulation, which was discussed earlier, if there are in fact those behind the scenes controlling price action to their own advantage.

When enough world liquidity becomes available, and price begins to rise, greed comes into the picture with people hoping for extreme price targets that buy over the all time high, and then creating new ones.

The more difficult it becomes to move price, the more people you have to convince to buy the asset to move that price. Would you buy over the ATH of $69,000? I certainly wouldn’t. Yet you count on those that do and make that mistake to make gains for yourself. You could then say, “Well didn’t people say that last cycle?” “I would never buy over $20,000…” I did, and Bitcoin did not rise much above that comparatively. You were even starting to see Billionaires like Kevin O’ Leary backing Bitcoin near the ATH last cycle. So that’s the game now, how many people with big money can you convince to make that mistake? Diminishing returns is telling you that is getting harder to do.

So Then, What’s The Point?

A read like this can be quite bumming, however I have always dedicated myself to telling the truth whether that is pleasant or not. Because in the end, it is the truth that helps people, not telling them what they want to hear.

You may now want to call me a dollar maximalist or compare me to someone that hates Bitcoin like Charlie Munger or Warren Buffet, or maybe even compare me to the early non-believers that we now look down upon because they have to live having ridded of a now much more valuable asset.

None of these things are true, I like Bitcoin, I like using it. I am here to make money, and to show you how to make money. If you don’t like money, then you probably shouldn’t listen to me. I have turned off my ears to the things that are continuously taught by the Bitcoin maximalist community, which I once believed, and now focus only on the data, which has worked out tremendously for me. I encourage you to do the same because it can tell you the truth, when no one else is making sense.

There is money to be made here, but time is running out to do so being that Bitcoin is in fact an exponential asset, and the logarithmic curve is beginning to flatten.

I hope, for everyone in the crypto community’s sake that I am wrong, returns are not diminishing, and everyone does win. I want everyone to profit. However, I continue to keep my head level, and present insights as they present themselves to me based on a large amount of reliable data.

Which will you trust, data that continues to be reliable, or a gut feeling? It is up to you to decide.

Thanks for reading this edition of the Bitcoin Data Newsletter! I hope that you were able to get some valuable information from it. The Premium Newsletter will release later today, where I discuss and updated perspective on the timing of the Mid-Cycle top as that time draws near.

Good luck to everyone on their own individual journey!

Best Wishes,

CryptoCon