Bitcoin Data Newsletter

A Big Update, I am Withdrawing my Crypto to an Exchange

Hello subscribers and followers,

Today I come to you with important, and probably unforeseen news, as I am withdrawing my crypto to an exchange.

Why? This newsletter update will break it down. I have noticed some key breaks in market structure, that are sending off massive red flags to me. I am making myself amply prepared in the event that Bitcoin has already topped.

Based on extensive analysis over the past couple days, I believe that, yes in fact Bitcoin did top at 64k. I am surprised by this as well. I will not be selling my crypto as soon as it gets to an exchange, as I need to make sure price action confirms my theory.

Over the past couple months, the crypto space has exploded and become extremely overvalued. Coins like Doge which have no inherent value other than it’s meme, signal that the market has become wildly over exuberant. Many of my friends have begun gambling with Alt coins, as they do not see high enough returns possible with Bitcoin. This is I think is the main issue. In order for Bitcoin price to increase there must be demand to push it higher. If someone were to think the best return possible with Bitcoin were it to go to 100k, that is only a 2x from here. That is not enough return to entice most people to buy at an already high price, therefore the speculation of alt coins where gains are much higher.

But CryptoCon, what about all the charts you have been posting saying that there is still much room to grow? Here lies the next problem, all data that I have is easily available to everyone, do you think all of these indicators which were all only available after the 2017 top, will just line up in the red zones and everyone gets to sell and everyone wins? No. It does not work that way. This data I believe has changed the psychology of the market as everyone waits for the indicators to go over extended.

But there was no parabolic run like every other top, which was a blow off top? Everyone is looking for that too. If everyone is looking for a massive parabolic top, how likely is it that everyone sees it coming and gets to sell at the same time? Extremely unlikely. This past week has challenged all of my analysis, and I will be the first to say, I believe I was wrong.

But this dip looks normal? It’s only around a 27% correction. 30-40% was common in the last bull market. Yes, but the last bull market was much more volatile than this one, to the up and downside. We also haven’t experienced a 40%+ drop like other times when we topped before? Again, everyone would be looking for this, and things are much less volatile now.

But maybe we need to visit the 21 week MA like the last cycle? That was a characteristic of last cycle, not this one. We have never visited that moving average as support.

But everyone says we’re going to 100k, what about stock to flow, this is just a buy the dip situation. It is possible that this cycle becomes a double peak like last cycle, however the risk seems to great to me to see if that is the case. No one will ever say not to buy the dip. That will only lose them followers and make people angry.

I understand this will be a very unpopular opinion, as no one thinks or wants this, however my only goal has always been to help my followers be successful, whether you believe that or not

I do not say any of this without merit, as I have gathered a lot of data to back this up. You can read the analysis and determine it for yourself.

The first piece of evidence as I mentioned on Twitter, is the loss of market structure. Bitcoin has broken through not one, but all trend line supports for the bull market. There are none left, regardless if it is able to reclaim them, it will not be bullish as bullish would be if it had tested it, not broken through.

The boxes are the next point, as for the first time this bull market, bitcoin has made a lower low. This signals a break in market structure and the start of a new trend, a downtrend. To confirm this, Bitcoin would also need to set in a lower high (blue box). Most likely testing the lower white line as resistance. This would be my selling point. Many indicators are bottomed out, and I expect if the top has occurred, there will be a point of recovery where it looks like Bitcoin will make a new ATH, and then it just doesn’t. If I am wrong I would expect to make a new ATH, which would be fine as I do not plan to sell until price action confirms my theories.

There are a couple indicators on lookintobitcoin.com that would have called the top. The first one which I have never mentioned is the golden ratio multiplier. This indicator calls for a top once price hits the Fibonacci line directly below the last. This happened 3 times recently. This indicator called for a top.

The second is the Pi cycle top indicator as most are aware, which actually would have called the top a day before it happened, which is in tolerance as the indicator claims to call tops of at most 3 days plus or minus. I have previously said that I think the Pi cycle top would be wrong, but now I think I was wrong, as that indicator seems to prove more and more that it was right.

Another indicator that would have called the top is these logarithmic regression curves on TradingView,

as price ran right into the top 3 times.

The next thing of concern is the loss of the trend on a lot of major indicators. This includes Reserve risk, RHODL, MVRV, and the Puell multiple. The black lines show where a clear line of support and trend is established, and when that is broken, it usually denotes the end of the cycle. This has happened wide spread. You can also see where the MVRV did touch the red zone close to the ATH (blue box), even though it did not go over the graph like previous cycles.

If you look at indicator placements, it definitely seems like we are only midway through the cycle. But that’s what literally everyone is thinking. The market will not behave to the majority of thinkers.

In a recent poll run on twitter, the overwhelming majority answered we are in the middle of the cycle. YouTubers, and twitter crypto influencers I see also think the same. I can see why, because that is how the data looks. But a lot of the data is likely to not show the same as past cycles if everyone is waiting for the same thing..

In another poll I ran I asked at what price people think Bitcoin will top this cycle, with the majority saying 100-150k. This is inline with what I see most people thinking around the space. Again, the majority is extremely unlikely to be right, so we can say that we probably won’t reach 100-150k this cycle.

The HODL waves is one of my favorite indicators, and I have mentioned the double top many times. It is very possible this already happened, even though the waves look small. They match the criteria with the second wave lower than the first, and it lines up pretty close to the top.

Some additional thoughts, 100k has kind of always been expected this cycle. Everyone thinks, oh yeah that’s guaranteed. This should be a red flag. Think of how many people would want to sell at 100k. It’s such an obvious price target to sell. It makes sense that Bitcoin would not be able to make it there this cycle

In order for Bitcoin to plow higher, people must want to buy at those high prices, I cant speak for everyone, but I know that most people in my friend group have bought at lower prices and do not want to buy at 60k or even at the 50k dip. Why do you think institutions would want to? They aren’t dumb, and especially when they feel the returns could only be 2-3x why take the risk? The answer is they wouldn’t.

I understand this will upset a lot of people, and many will disagree. I get it. If you want to call the top you have to go against the grain. Everyone is screaming buy the dip right now, well I’m not. I am standing up and saying that Bitcoin has probably topped. I don’t want to believe it but the facts are staring me right in the face

There are additional indicators such as the weekly MACD that looks like it will cross to the downside, this only happens in bull markets at the end.

What is my plan? Well, I certainly won’t be selling on the dip while most indicators are bottomed out, as I fully expect bitcoin to try and reclaim the ATH. If and when that happens, and it fails, I will sell everything. If not, then price action will have made a higher high and I will keep holding.

In the end, no matter what you’re here in crypto for, I am here to make a profit, and nothing else, not to hold for the rest of my life. My top priority is securing my gains, as I have a lot of profit to realize. I will keep you updated on when and if I decide to sell. I will be happy to answer any comments and questions.

I think its absolutely possible Bitcoin goes on another run later in the year similar to 2013, but unfortunately I think the risk has grown too great and I will not be around holding to see it.

Sincerely, CryptoCon