Hello Everyone!
What a ride it has been this week! Bitcoin has dropped to 60k, reaching the First Low Band of the Bear Bands and clearing heavy liquidity.
Metrics like Weekly RSI are becoming popular as they reach lows only seen at previous cycle bottoms.
In this video, I’ll tell you what I’m doing and what I’m watching for from here using the Bear Bands, a bear market comparison, and long-term Bitcoin holder data.
Enjoy!
Summary (AI-Generated)
Current Bitcoin Price Action
Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop from a high of approximately 98,000 to a low of 60,000, marking a 40,000 difference in value over the week.
This decline contributes to a total correction of about 48% from the cycle top in October.
Following the drop to 60,000, Bitcoin is seeing a heavy bounce from around 63,000, punishing short positions.
Dense liquidity was present between 69,000 and 74,000, which served as an area of interest during the decline.
Shift in Market Sentiment
At highs in August and October, expectations of a bear market were uncommon and often ridiculed.
After dropping to 83,000, some considered a bear market, but most did not accept it.
Now, after the move to 60,000 and nearly a 50% drop, the majority has accepted that Bitcoin is entering a bear market.
Technical Indicators and Metrics
Weekly RSI is making lows typically seen at cycle bottoms, going oversold and aligning with previous bottoms in June 2022, December 2018, and January 2015.
Despite this, intensive research indicates this is not an ideal investment point, as more time and data resolution are needed for a true cycle bottom.
Long-term Bitcoin holders (those holding for one year or more) remain at extremely low levels, showing disinterest in current prices; they are waiting for better opportunities.
Metrics suggest Bitcoin is not as oversold as it appears when viewed in full context, with cracks in the data indicating the bear market is ongoing.
Bear Bands and Liquidity Analysis
Bear bands were highlighted as key for important bear market lows, with three major points: first low (January to March 2026), second low (August to October 2026), and cycle bottom (November 2026 to January 2027).
The first low band was reached at about 63,000 in February 2026, aligning with expectations.
After reaching the first low band, stagnation and a bounce for some months are common, similar to patterns in January 2022 and February 2018.
Comparisons to Previous Cycles
The current situation most resembles January 2022, with significant bear market price action still ahead, despite being ahead of the previous bear market’s performance.
This bear market has reached a 47% decline from the high, compared to only 42% at a similar point in cycle three; it is currently worse than cycle three’s bear market.
Cycle three did not reach the deeper declines of cycles one and two (61% and 66%).
Pasting previous bear markets onto the current cycle top shows a unification point around September 2026 at about 35,000, assuming similar performance.
Cycle Progress and Future Expectations
The cycle remains on track, with the first low achieved, but two more important lows (second low and cycle bottom) are expected to complete the bear market over the remainder of the year.
Nuances in cycles are anticipated, similar to the last cycle where they kept people guessing; few expected the cycle top or declines.
Even though weekly RSI shows cycle bottom levels, context from multiple data points indicates the bear market is not over.
Patience is emphasized for better buying opportunities, with all positions exited at 112,000 in August 2025, waiting in cash.
Overall Context and Caution
While indicators like weekly RSI should be taken seriously due to historical reliability at cycle bottoms, the full picture reveals it’s not the opportune buying point.
Data such as long-term holder behavior returning to certain levels (as in January 2022) does not guarantee a cycle bottom, as bear markets can continue afterward.
Expect to see weekly RSI charts more frequently, but broader context is crucial to avoid misinterpretation.
