I’m back in August for another quick update as Bitcoin hovers around 64k for going on its third month.

What was a slow grind up is now a slow grind down. There are no predominant patterns in the short term that I can find, and what we see is plain and boring price stagnation.

There’s nothing convincing on RSI either, like major bullish or b…

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Ah… another week around 64k. This time, we’re on our way down.

As price stagnates, confidence has built from much of crypto X that the bottom is in.

And, if you don’t agree with that, it seems your only other choice is to expect a cycle bottom in October at 50k.

In this video, we’ll talk about the Halving Cycle Theory’s cycle bottom date range of November 2026 - January 2027 and how that works with price and against the most popular predictions.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is bouncing back toward the top of its July range, but the bigger question remains: is this the cycle bottom, or is Bitcoin still one major move away?

In this video, I break down current market psychology, the limits of contrarian thinking, Bitcoin’s likely bottom window, key price targets, liquidity conditions, and the indicators that still suggest more downside may be ahead.

Enjoy!

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I’m back with another quick update as Bitcoin drops again from its brief move to 64k to now 62k. I’m feeling a bit under the weather this week, so that makes it the perfect time for this shorter write-up.

At 64k, RSI bearish divergence was starting to build on shorter time frames like the 4hr and hidden bearish divergence on the daily:

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Bitcoin is bouncing, and confidence is rising again. Bearish momentum is slowing, but that does not mean the bear market is over.

In this video, we’ll go over what building bullish divergences across metrics mean for price, and where I think Bitcoin is most likely to bottom out using price levels and data positioning.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is still hovering around $60k and I’m continuing to expect lower prices before this cycle bottom is confirmed.

In this video, I’ll go through why some indicators are already flashing bottom signals while others aren’t, why I’m still waiting to buy into stocks, and where I’m watching for the real low… most likely the low 40k’s later this year.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is still about the same prices as last week, but to keep you in the loop I wanted to shoot out another quick update.

One of the biggest pieces of news was the massive drop for STRC to 82.57, which is a perpetual preferred stock by Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy.

It’s supposed to trade as close to a value of 100 as possible, whic…

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Bitcoin is showing a short-term bear flag while sentiment has flipped extremely bullish, with a lot of people now calling the cycle bottom.

In this video, I break down why the weekly RSI bullish divergence isn’t as convincing as it looks on the surface, why most other timeframes and metrics still aren’t confirming a bottom, and why I’m sticking with a cycle-first approach that points to more downside ahead.

I also touch on gold’s long-term cycle, what M2 is doing, and why I’m comfortable staying patient until we actually reach the real bottom window.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin hit a new low of $59,000 this week as the bear market continues. In this update, we’ll break down the latest weekly price action, the ongoing struggle around the previous cycle’s $60K–$70K zone and the 200-week SMA, and why more downside is still likely.

I’ll share my cycle bottom/top approach, now giving cycle timing equal weight with indicators for better accuracy. We’ll also talk about M2 money supply projections, bear market comparisons, support levels from volume profile, Bear Bands, Magic Bands, and more.

We’ll also go over updates on long-term cycle bottom data after the move to 59k. Despite some bounces and early bullish signals, the overall picture and cycle positioning still point to more pain ahead, with the November 2026 – January 2027 timeframe remaining key.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin just dropped back to $71K and is retesting the bottom of the bear flag after falling over $10,000 from the highs.

In this week’s update, I break down the current technical picture, the psychological shift I’m seeing after Michael Saylor’s sale, and why last cycle’s altcoin flop raises concerns that Bitcoin could face similar challenges.

We’ll cover psychology, future cycle performance potential, prices for the cycle bottom, and cycle bottom data.

Enjoy!

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As Bitcoin stalls around 77k, I'm sharing a shorter written update instead of a full video to keep you in the loop without overdoing it.

Markets overall have bounced from their temporary lows, a point where many people turned very bearish.

This doesn’t change my outlook for price, psychology will eb and flow.

The bear flag is still active an…

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Bitcoin is holding around $76,700 inside the bear flag as Global M2 peaks and starts to roll over. We’ll discuss why this setup still favors further downside and what the current structure is telling us.

We’ll cover key resistance, RSI divergences, logarithmic MVRV, and long-term holder behavior, plus my thoughts on where the stock market stands. A quick look at where we are in the cycle and what I’m watching next.

Enjoy!

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Global M2 is once again sending a clear signal. With a local high expected around May 23rd and a potential low forming by late June, the coming weeks could mark an important turning point for Bitcoin and risk assets.

In this video, we’ll look at the 10-week lead time of global money supply, the shifting psychology behind the current rebound, why the Halving Cycle remains intact, and what the parabolic move in semiconductors really means for the broader market.

Enjoy!

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As Bitcoin upticks past 80k, calls for the death of the 4-year cycle have ramped up alongside confident claims that the cycle bottom is in.

In this video, I’ll be going over the short term with patterns and metrics, we’ll look more into markets abroad as I consider diversification, and we’ll wrap up with what I think Bitcoin will be able to achieve for the next cycle top, depending on the price of the cycle bottom.

Enjoy!

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This video will be an important one and a change of pace as I analyze the future of crypto performances.

Bitcoin’s returns are diminishing, and Altcoin performance completely flopped last cycle. The big question that no one seems to be answering is, How does this affect cycles going forward? Including the one coming up.

We’ll talk about the future of crypto, Parallels to other assets throughout history, and my plan for investments going forward.

Enjoy!

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We all feel it… things have changed in the crypto space. The data shows it, people aren’t searching for crypto like they used to. Altcoins suffered an abysmal performance in the latest cycle.

In this video, I’ll be talking about my approach going forward. Considering different investments, and how I will invest in Bitcoin and Altcoins. The plan is flexible and lets me choose how I’d like to allocate based on how crypto performs during the bear market.

We’ll also go over our Bitcoin bear market data and talk about the current position as usual.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin continues to hover in the range, stuck at 68k. I’ve been in the lab and come up with a very interesting cycle comparison to share that reinforces, but also differs from the Halving Cycles Theory.

Premium subscribers also have access to the Cycle Labs page which goes in depth into cycle theory:

Cycle Labs

We’ll be covering some more information on cycles too, alongside a breif look at data for our cycle bottom position.

Enjoy!

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Welcome back to the first Friday Video update in some time, as prices have stagnated and we await the next big move.

In this video, we’ll be going over some of my latest posts, like SOPR cycles and the Simple Bands, as well as covering our current bear market position compared to other cycles.

Enjoy!

Summary (AI Generated)

Bitcoin Market Overview

• Bitcoin has traded sideways for the past two months within a range of $60,000 to $76,000 and currently sits near $67,000, roughly at the midpoint of that range.

• Price action at this stage aligns with the expected behavior during the first low of the bear market according to halving cycle theory.

• The second low and final cycle bottom are still ahead.

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) Analysis

• SOPR functions as a profit/loss indicator similar to NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), showing the level of profit or loss held by investors.

• High-profit levels were reached three times in the current cycle: March 2024, November 2024, and July 2025 — consistent with typical cycle-top behavior.

• Following the July 2025 peak, the metric has moved into a zone of lower profit/higher loss but has not yet reached the maximum-loss (high-loss) green zone that historically signals a cycle bottom.

• The current orange-highlighted relative position matches the February–June 2018 period and the April 2014 period in prior cycles (roughly midway through the bear market).

• A stronger historical parallel is the 2018 decline from $6,000 to a firm bottom at $3,000 in December 2018.

• Return to the high-loss zone is anticipated between November 2026 and January 2027, which would likely mark the cycle bottom (or possibly require an additional move afterward).

• While SOPR is not perfectly precise (e.g., false signals in September 2014 and January 2021), it has reliably guided overall cycle direction.

Bear Market Drawdown Comparison

• From the October 2025 cycle top, Bitcoin is currently down approximately 47 %.

• Comparative drawdowns at the same point in prior cycles:

  • Cycle 1 (2014): –49 %

  • Cycle 2 (2018): –66 %

  • Cycle 3 (2022): –54 %

• All three prior bear markets converge into a “unification zone” between June and September 2026, after which they diverge toward their respective cycle bottoms.

• Possible cycle-bottom drawdowns range from 77 % to 86 % from the cycle top; the current cycle has so far shown a milder drawdown than previous ones, but this is not guaranteed to continue.

• A cycle bottom as high as the low $50,000s remains possible within the expected range.

Simple Bands Metric

• Simple Bands are constructed using realized market cap adjusted to price (distinct from volume-weighted “Magic Bands”).

• The green band accurately captures cycle bottoms; the red band captures cycle tops; the middle line serves as a bullish/bearish regime indicator.

• Bitcoin has moved below the midline and successfully retested it as resistance.

• Timing of this midline retest (April 2026) closely matches historical analogs: May 2022, March 2018, and April 2014.

• Historical pattern shows two retests of the cycle-bottom band; the first retest has been the actual bottom in two prior cycles, while the third cycle required a second retest.

• Current cycle-bottom band sits near $42,000 (subject to minor future adjustment).

Halving Cycles Theory Timeline

• The market is currently in the “first low” phase, marked by the hollow orange dot.

• First-low window (January–March) was realized exactly as forecasted in February 2026.

• Second-low window: August–October 2026.

• Cycle-bottom window: November 2026–January 2027.

• All three major cycle phases still have significant time remaining to develop.

Cycle-Bottom Confirmation Criteria

• Several metrics (including weekly RSI) have reached levels historically associated with cycle bottoms, but these alone are insufficient.

• The current timeframe falls outside the halving-cycle theory’s cycle-bottom window.

• Key cycle-bottom thresholds on multiple metrics have not yet been met.

• Market psychology does not yet reflect the extreme pessimism and “guaranteed negative outcome” narratives (recession, Bitcoin’s death, quantum-computing threats, etc.) typically observed at true cycle lows.

• A mix of lingering optimism persists, which is inconsistent with cycle-bottom conditions.

Overall Outlook

• The bear market is considered ongoing and not yet complete.

• Patience is advised while waiting for higher-conviction entry opportunities aligned with cycle-bottom signals.

• Although some risk exists that price could advance without a deeper drawdown, waiting for clearer cycle completion is viewed as the higher-probability approach for improved outcomes.

• Multiple independent data sets (SOPR, Simple Bands, halving cycle timing, drawdown comparisons, and psychology) collectively point toward additional downside and time required before the cycle bottom is reached.

Times like these will check just about anyone out… Bitcoin is stuck in a range from 60 - 76k, and the market overall continues to tumble.

It’s our job to avoid bottom buying FOMO and distinguish a standard bear market low from the cycle bottom.

In this video, I’ll look at data that tells us where we are in the bear market, while also giving you an update on my thoughts on SPX’s decline.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin continues to churn through the bear flag as markets overall start to dip. The S&P 500 and precious metals have rounded off their highs and begun their descent.

This video, we’ll look at my latest data for Bitcoin and cover our bear market position. Why keep waiting? How do we know we’re not missing out?

We’ll talk about this and more.

Enjoy!

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